Rentistas v La Luz prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RentistasDrawLa Luz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rentistas 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rentistas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rentistas 45%, draw 29%, La Luz 26%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Rentistas v La LuzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rentistas win45%

Draw29%

La Luz win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 22:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 25

VenueComplejo Rentistas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rentistas

La Luz

13Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
9	La Luz	23	−4	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rentistas winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Rentistas a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rentistas v La Luz~~1.26 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 31~~3 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rentistas win	45%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
La Luz win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Rentistas or draw	74%	–	–
Rentistas clean sheet	42%	–	–
La Luz clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 12.1 10.1 4.6 1 14.5 13.3 5.7 2 9.3 8.2 3.6 3 3.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rentistas down, La Luz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rentistas at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). La Luz away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Rentistas, 0.88 for La Luz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LAL 2–5 REN · LAL 2–0 REN · REN 3–2 LAL · LAL 0–0 REN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

RENTISTAS

WLWWLW1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

LA LUZ

WLWWDW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	24	+6	37
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	24	+5	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	24	−9	25
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	−13	21