Rentistas v Atenas prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Rentistas 3–0 Atenas RENTISTAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rentistas win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.570

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.555

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rentistas win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rentistas was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–31–31
1′KICK-OFF Rentistas v Atenas
7′Rentistas score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–11
7′We published Rentistas at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Rentistas 1–0 Atenas
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Rentistas win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–7
31′Rentistas find the net on 31′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
31′We published Rentistas at 38%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Rentistas 2–0 Atenas
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Rentistas win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
44′We published Rentistas at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Rentistas 2–0 Atenas
46′SECOND HALF Rentistas 2–0 Atenas
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Rentistas win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
80′We published Rentistas at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′A goal for Rentistas on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Rentistas 3–0 Atenas
94′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Rentistas 3–0 Atenas
FTRentistas 3–0 Atenas · Rentistas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rentistas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rentistas 38%, draw 31%, Atenas 31%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Rentistas v AtenasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rentistas win38%

Draw31%

Atenas win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 23

VenueComplejo Rentistas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rentistas

Atenas

3Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Copa Uruguay

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rentistas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Rentistas a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rentistas v Atenas~~1.10 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 33 v 41~~5 v 1

~~The market · Rentistas win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rentistas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rentistas win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	31%	31%	0
Atenas win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	34%	43%	−9
Both teams to score	41%	50%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	61%	67%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	16%	24%	−8
Rentistas or draw	69%	70%	−1
Rentistas clean sheet	38%	–	–
Atenas clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 13.1 12.0 5.8 1 13.8 13.6 6.4 2.1 2 7.7 7.4 3.5 3 2.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rentistas down, Atenas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 201 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rentistas at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atenas away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Rentistas, 0.96 for Atenas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ATE 1–3 REN · REN 2–0 ATE · ATE 0–2 REN · REN 2–0 ATE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept

RENTISTAS

WWLWWL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

ATENAS

WDWDWD3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	22	+12	41
2	Colón	23	+2	36
3	CA River Plate	22	+7	33
4	Plaza Colonia	22	+5	33
5	Rentistas	22	+2	33
6	Oriental	22	+5	32
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	23	−9	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	22	−14	17