Plaza Colonia v Tacuarembo prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Plaza ColoniaDrawTacuarembo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Plaza Colonia 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plaza Colonia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plaza Colonia 48%, draw 29%, Tacuarembo 24%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Plaza Colonia v TacuaremboBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Plaza Colonia win48%

Draw29%

Tacuarembo win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 24

VenueParque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plaza Colonia

Tacuarembo

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Plaza Colonia	23	+6	36
13	Tacuarembo	23	−9	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plaza colonia winFirst published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

48% The market59%

Us48%

~~Market~~59%

We make Plaza Colonia a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plaza Colonia v Tacuarembo~~1.34 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 24~~2 v 13

~~The market · Plaza Colonia win~~59% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plaza Colonia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plaza Colonia win	48%	59%	−11
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Tacuarembo win	24%	17%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Plaza Colonia or draw	76%	83%	−7
Plaza Colonia clean sheet	43%	–	–
Tacuarembo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 11.6 9.3 4.1 1 14.8 12.9 5.4 2 10.0 8.4 3.6 3 4.5 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plaza Colonia down, Tacuarembo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,207 Segunda División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.2% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plaza Colonia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tacuarembo away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Plaza Colonia, 0.85 for Tacuarembo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TAC 0–2 PLA · PLA 1–0 TAC · TAC 0–1 PLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

PLAZA COLONIA

WDDLDW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

TACUAREMBO

DDDLLL2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	23	+6	36
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	23	+6	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	23	−9	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	23	−14	18