Plaza Colonia v CA River Plate prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

Plaza Colonia 2–1 CA River Plate PLAZA COLONIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plaza Colonia win~~45%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.455

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.613

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plaza Colonia win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Plaza Colonia 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Plaza Colonia v CA River Plate
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Plaza Colonia win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Plaza Colonia win 35%)
45′A goal for Plaza Colonia on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′We said Plaza Colonia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Plaza Colonia 1–0 CA River Plate
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Plaza Colonia win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Plaza Colonia win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 18%)
45′HALF-TIME Plaza Colonia 1–0 CA River Plate
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–5
46′SECOND HALF Plaza Colonia 1–0 CA River Plate
59′We said Plaza Colonia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
62′Plaza Colonia score on 62′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Plaza Colonia 2–0 CA River Plate
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Plaza Colonia win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
63′We said Plaza Colonia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
81′We said Plaza Colonia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′CA River Plate find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
91′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Plaza Colonia 2–1 CA River Plate
FTFULL TIME Plaza Colonia 2–1 CA River Plate
FTPlaza Colonia 2–1 CA River Plate · Plaza Colonia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plaza Colonia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plaza Colonia 45%, draw 27%, CA River Plate 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Plaza Colonia v CA River PlateBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Plaza Colonia win45%

Draw27%

CA River Plate win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 23

VenueParque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plaza Colonia

CA River Plate

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Uruguay

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CA River Plate	22	+7	33
4	Plaza Colonia	22	+5	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plaza colonia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market36%

Us45%

~~Market~~36%

We make Plaza Colonia a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plaza Colonia v CA River Plate~~1.42 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 33 v 33~~4 v 3

~~The market · Plaza Colonia win~~36% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plaza Colonia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plaza Colonia win	45%	36%	+9
Draw	27%	30%	−3
CA River Plate win	28%	34%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	45%	43%	+2
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	68%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	24%	0
Plaza Colonia or draw	72%	66%	+6
Plaza Colonia clean sheet	35%	–	–
CA River Plate clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.6 8.7 4.7 1 11.6 12.7 6.7 2.4 2 8.4 8.8 4.7 3 4.0 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plaza Colonia down, CA River Plate across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 201 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plaza Colonia at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). CA River Plate away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Plaza Colonia, 1.07 for CA River Plate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAR 3–2 PLA · PLA 3–0 CAR · PLA 1–1 CAR · PLA 0–0 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept

PLAZA COLONIA

WWDDLD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

CA RIVER PLATE

LLDWLW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 3–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	22	+12	41
2	Colón	23	+2	36
3	CA River Plate	22	+7	33
4	Plaza Colonia	22	+5	33
5	Rentistas	22	+2	33
6	Oriental	22	+5	32
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	23	−9	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	22	−14	17