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Paysandu v Rentistas

Paysandu

2–1Full time

Rentistas

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Paysandu 2–1 Rentistas RENTISTAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rentistas win~~36%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.646

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rentistas win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rentistas 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Paysandu v Rentistas
2′Little has changed for our model: Rentistas 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Paysandu 0–1 Rentistas
45′HALF-TIME Paysandu 0–1 Rentistas
46′SECOND HALF Paysandu 0–1 Rentistas
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Paysandu 1–1 Rentistas
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Paysandu 2–1 Rentistas
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Paysandu
90′🟥 RED CARD · 97' Rentistas
90′🟥 RED CARD · 98' Rentistas
FTPaysandu 2–1 Rentistas · Rentistas win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Paysandu win34%

Draw29%

Rentistas win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rentistas winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

36% The market45%

Us36%

~~Market~~45%

We make Rentistas a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rentistas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paysandu win	34%	27%	+8
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Rentistas win	36%	45%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−7
Paysandu or draw	64%	55%	+9
Paysandu clean sheet	33%	–	–
Rentistas clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.2 12.0 6.9 2.6 1 11.6 13.5 7.5 2.8 2 6.5 7.3 4.1 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paysandu down, Rentistas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.4% of games this season, across 190 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paysandu at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rentistas away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Paysandu, 1.13 for Rentistas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REN 1–2 PAY · PAY 0–1 REN

Form · last six in Segunda División

PAYSANDU

WWLDDL2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

RENTISTAS

DWWLWW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oriental	28	+9	45
2	Plaza Colonia	27	+12	44
3	Atenas	27	+6	44
4	Fenix	28	+10	43
5	Rentistas	27	+4	42
6	Colón	27	0	39
7	Cerrito	27	+3	38
8	Sportivo Huracan	27	−3	36
9	CA River Plate	27	−2	34
10	La Luz	27	−6	34
11	Miramar	27	−7	30
12	Paysandu	27	−5	29
13	Tacuarembo	27	−11	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	27	−10	26