Paysandu v Colón prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PaysanduDrawColón

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Colón 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colón are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paysandu 32%, draw 30%, Colón 38%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Paysandu v ColónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Paysandu win32%

Draw30%

Colón win38%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 23:30

Round2nd phase · matchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paysandu

Colón

9Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Colón	23	+2	36
8	Paysandu	23	0	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colón winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make Colón a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paysandu v Colón~~1.04 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 36~~8 v 4

~~The market · Colón win~~38% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Colón win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paysandu win	32%	32%	0
Draw	30%	30%	0
Colón win	38%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	38%	41%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Paysandu or draw	62%	62%	0
Paysandu clean sheet	32%	–	–
Colón clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.4 12.5 7.4 2.9 1 11.3 13.6 7.7 3.0 2 6.0 6.9 4.0 3 2.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paysandu down, Colón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paysandu at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Colón away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Paysandu, 1.16 for Colón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~COL 2–3 PAY · PAY 0–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

PAYSANDU

LDDLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

COLÓN

LDLDWW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	24	+6	37
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	24	+5	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	24	−9	25
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	−13	21