Miramar v Cerrito prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Miramar 1–0 Cerrito MIRAMAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Miramar win~~46%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.441

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Miramar win at 46%.
3′KICK-OFF Miramar v Cerrito
4′Much as we predicted: Miramar was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Miramar win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Miramar win 36%)
45′SECOND HALF Miramar 0–0 Cerrito
49′We said Miramar at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
50′We published Miramar at 46%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–5
50′HALF-TIME Miramar 0–0 Cerrito
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Miramar 1–0 Cerrito
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Miramar win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Miramar win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
51′Miramar find the net on 48′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Miramar win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
57′We published Miramar at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
70′We published Miramar at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Miramar win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
79′We published Miramar at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′We published Miramar at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Miramar win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Miramar 1–0 Cerrito
FTMiramar 1–0 Cerrito · Miramar win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Miramar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Miramar 46%, draw 27%, Cerrito 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Miramar v CerritoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Miramar win46%

Draw27%

Cerrito win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 23

VenueParque Palermo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Miramar

Cerrito

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cerrito	22	+4	32
12	Miramar	22	−3	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · miramar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market34%

Us46%

~~Market~~34%

We make Miramar a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Miramar v Cerrito~~1.43 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 32~~12 v 7

~~The market · Miramar win~~34% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Miramar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Miramar win	46%	34%	+12
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Cerrito win	27%	37%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Miramar or draw	73%	63%	+10
Miramar clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cerrito clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 8.5 4.6 1 11.8 12.8 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.9 4.6 3 4.2 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Miramar down, Cerrito across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,201 Segunda División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.4% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Miramar at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cerrito away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Miramar, 1.03 for Cerrito. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CER 1–0 MIR · CER 1–6 MIR · MIR 2–2 CER · CER 2–2 MIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

MIRAMAR

LWWLWD0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

CERRITO

LDDLWW1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	22	+12	41
2	Colón	23	+2	36
3	CA River Plate	22	+7	33
4	Plaza Colonia	22	+5	33
5	Rentistas	22	+2	33
6	Oriental	22	+5	32
7	Cerrito	22	+4	32
8	Fenix	22	+3	30
9	Paysandu	22	−1	28
10	La Luz	22	−5	28
11	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
12	Miramar	22	−3	26
13	Tacuarembo	22	−8	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	22	−14	17