La Luz v Plaza Colonia prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

La Luz 1–1 Plaza Colonia PLAZA COLONIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Plaza Colonia win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.693

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plaza Colonia win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Plaza Colonia 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 30–30–40
47′Little has changed for our model: Plaza Colonia 40% before kick-off, 30% now. 0–0 · 24–46–30
59′58′ and it is 1–0: La Luz have scored. 1–0 · 75–21–5
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Plaza Colonia win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' La Luz win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Plaza Colonia win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was La Luz win 25%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Plaza Colonia win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was La Luz win 25%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Plaza Colonia win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' La Luz win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
68′58′ and it is 1–0: La Luz have scored. 1–0 · 80–18–3
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Plaza Colonia win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was La Luz win 25%)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Plaza Colonia win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' La Luz win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' La Luz 1–1 Plaza Colonia
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' La Luz 1–1 Plaza Colonia
81′Plaza Colonia find the net on 76′. 1–1. 1–1 · 8–82–10
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Luz win 8%)
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' La Luz win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 18%)
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' La Luz win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 18%)
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Luz win 8%)
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Luz win 8%)
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' La Luz win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 18%)
FTFULL TIME La Luz 1–1 Plaza Colonia
FTLa Luz 1–1 Plaza Colonia · Plaza Colonia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

La Luz win30%

Draw30%

Plaza Colonia win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

La Luz

Plaza Colonia

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Plaza Colonia	27	+12	44
10	La Luz	27	−6	34

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plaza colonia winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Plaza Colonia a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · plaza colonia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
La Luz win	30%	33%	−2
Draw	30%	32%	−2
Plaza Colonia win	40%	35%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	36%	39%	−3
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−3
La Luz or draw	60%	65%	−5
La Luz clean sheet	31%	–	–
Plaza Colonia clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.0 13.4 8.0 3.1 1 11.2 13.5 7.8 3.1 2 5.6 6.5 3.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+La Luz down, Plaza Colonia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

La Luz at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Plaza Colonia away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for La Luz, 1.17 for Plaza Colonia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PLA 1–0 LAL · PLA 2–0 LAL · LAL 2–1 PLA

Form · last six in Segunda División

LA LUZ

DLWLWW0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

PLAZA COLONIA

LWWDDL0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oriental	29	+7	45
2	Plaza Colonia	27	+12	44
3	Atenas	27	+6	44
4	Fenix	28	+10	43
5	Rentistas	28	+3	42
6	Colón	28	+2	42
7	Cerrito	28	+4	41
8	CA River Plate	28	0	37
9	Sportivo Huracan	27	−3	36
10	La Luz	27	−6	34
11	Paysandu	28	−4	32
12	Miramar	27	−7	30
13	Tacuarembo	28	−12	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	28	−12	26