La Luz v Miramar prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

La LuzDrawMiramar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Miramar 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Miramar just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: La Luz 34%, draw 30%, Miramar 36%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on La Luz v MiramarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

La Luz win34%

Draw30%

Miramar win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 22:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

La Luz

Miramar

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
11	Miramar	23	−2	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · miramar winFirst published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

36% The market25%

Us36%

~~Market~~25%

We make Miramar a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · La Luz v Miramar~~1.06 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 31 v 29~~9 v 11

~~The market · Miramar win~~25% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Miramar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
La Luz win	34%	46%	−12
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Miramar win	36%	25%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	22%	−5
La Luz or draw	64%	75%	−11
La Luz clean sheet	33%	–	–
Miramar clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.9 12.4 7.0 2.6 1 11.9 13.6 7.3 2.7 2 6.5 7.1 3.9 3 2.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+La Luz down, Miramar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

La Luz at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Miramar away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for La Luz, 1.11 for Miramar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MIR 0–1 LAL · MIR 1–1 LAL · LAL 3–1 MIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

LA LUZ

WLWWDW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

MIRAMAR

WWLWDW3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	23	+6	36
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	24	+5	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	23	−9	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	−13	21