Fenix v Paysandu prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34

Fenix 0–1 Paysandu FENIX WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fenix win~~44%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.781

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fenix win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fenix was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Fenix v Paysandu
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fenix win 35%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Fenix win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′SECOND HALF Fenix 0–0 Paysandu
47′HALF-TIME Fenix 0–0 Paysandu
50′We said Fenix at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–48–22
57′We said Fenix at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
66′We said Fenix at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Fenix win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
73′We said Fenix at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
79′We said Fenix at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Fenix win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
80′We said Fenix at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–12–87
80′A goal for Paysandu on 80′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Fenix 0–1 Paysandu
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Fenix win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Paysandu win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
95′Full time, 0–1. We called Fenix at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Fenix 0–1 Paysandu
FTFenix 0–1 Paysandu · Fenix win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fenix are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fenix 44%, draw 28%, Paysandu 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Fenix v PaysanduBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fenix win44%

Draw28%

Paysandu win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 23

VenueParque Capurro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fenix

Paysandu

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Fenix	22	+3	30
9	Paysandu	22	−1	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fenix winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market62%

Us44%

~~Market~~62%

We make Fenix a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fenix v Paysandu~~1.37 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 28~~8 v 9

~~The market · Fenix win~~62% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fenix win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fenix win	44%	62%	−18
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Paysandu win	28%	14%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	43%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Fenix or draw	72%	86%	−14
Fenix clean sheet	35%	–	–
Paysandu clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.4 9.1 4.9 1 11.9 13.0 6.6 2.3 2 8.3 8.6 4.5 3 3.8 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fenix down, Paysandu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,201 Segunda División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.4% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fenix at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Paysandu away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Fenix, 1.05 for Paysandu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAY 1–0 FEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

FENIX

LWDLWD1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0

PAYSANDU

WLDDLW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	22	+12	41
2	Colón	23	+2	36
3	CA River Plate	22	+7	33
4	Plaza Colonia	22	+5	33
5	Rentistas	22	+2	33
6	Oriental	22	+5	32
7	Cerrito	22	+4	32
8	Fenix	22	+3	30
9	Paysandu	22	−1	28
10	La Luz	22	−5	28
11	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
12	Miramar	22	−3	26
13	Tacuarembo	22	−8	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	22	−14	17