Colón v Sportivo Huracan prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 02:30

Colón 3–0 Sportivo Huracan COLÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colón win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.475

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colón win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Colón 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Colón v Sportivo Huracan
24′Colón find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Colón 1–0 Sportivo Huracan
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Colón win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
25′We said Colón at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–7
27′A goal for Colón on 27′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Colón 2–0 Sportivo Huracan
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Colón win: 46% at kick-off, 94% now
28′We said Colón at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
36′We said Colón at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Colón win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Colón 2–0 Sportivo Huracan
46′SECOND HALF Colón 2–0 Sportivo Huracan
65′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
79′We said Colón at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′Colón score on 84′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Colón 3–0 Sportivo Huracan
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Colón 3–0 Sportivo Huracan
FTColón 3–0 Sportivo Huracan · Colón win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colón are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colón 46%, draw 29%, Sportivo Huracan 25%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Colón v Sportivo HuracanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Colón win46%

Draw29%

Sportivo Huracan win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 00:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colón

Sportivo Huracan

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Colón	22	−1	33
11	Sportivo Huracan	22	−6	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colón winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Colón a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colón v Sportivo Huracan~~1.31 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 33 v 27~~5 v 11

~~The market · Colón win~~44% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Colón win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colón win	46%	44%	+2
Draw	29%	29%	0
Sportivo Huracan win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Colón or draw	75%	72%	+3
Colón clean sheet	41%	–	–
Sportivo Huracan clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 11.4 9.5 4.5 1 13.9 13.2 5.8 2 9.4 8.4 3.8 3 4.1 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colón down, Sportivo Huracan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,200 Segunda División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.1% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colón at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Huracan away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Colón, 0.90 for Sportivo Huracan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 4 Sept

COLÓN

WLDLDW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–1

SPORTIVO HURACAN

WLDWLD3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	22	+12	41
2	CA River Plate	22	+7	33
3	Plaza Colonia	22	+5	33
4	Rentistas	22	+2	33
5	Colón	22	−1	33
6	Oriental	22	+5	32
7	Cerrito	22	+4	32
8	Fenix	22	+3	30
9	Paysandu	22	−1	28
10	La Luz	22	−5	28
11	Sportivo Huracan	22	−6	27
12	Miramar	22	−3	26
13	Tacuarembo	22	−8	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	22	−14	17