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Cerrito v Tacuarembo

Cerrito

2–1Full time

Tacuarembo

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Cerrito 2–1 Tacuarembo CERRITO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerrito win~~38%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.569

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerrito win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cerrito was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
1′KICK-OFF Cerrito v Tacuarembo
4′Much as we predicted: Cerrito was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Cerrito 0–1 Tacuarembo
27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Cerrito 0–1 Tacuarembo
45′SECOND HALF Cerrito 0–1 Tacuarembo
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Cerrito 1–1 Tacuarembo · A. Enzo
84′⚽ GOAL · 85' Cerrito 1–1 Tacuarembo
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cerrito 2–1 Tacuarembo · A. Enzo
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Cerrito 2–1 Tacuarembo
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Cerrito
89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Tacuarembo
FTFULL TIME Cerrito 2–1 Tacuarembo
FTCerrito 2–1 Tacuarembo · Cerrito win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cerrito win38%

Draw29%

Tacuarembo win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cerrito winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

38% The market49%

Us38%

~~Market~~49%

We make Cerrito a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cerrito win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerrito win	38%	49%	−10
Draw	29%	27%	+1
Tacuarembo win	33%	24%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	41%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−4
Cerrito or draw	67%	76%	−9
Cerrito clean sheet	33%	–	–
Tacuarembo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.2 10.6 6.0 2.2 1 11.8 13.3 7.2 2.7 2 7.3 7.9 4.4 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerrito down, Tacuarembo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.4% of games this season, across 190 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerrito at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tacuarembo away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Cerrito, 1.10 for Tacuarembo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TAC 0–0 CER · TAC 1–1 CER · CER 1–1 TAC · TAC 2–0 CER

Form · last six in Segunda División

CERRITO

LLDDLW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

TACUAREMBO

LLDDDL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oriental	28	+9	45
2	Plaza Colonia	27	+12	44
3	Atenas	27	+6	44
4	Fenix	28	+10	43
5	Rentistas	27	+4	42
6	Colón	27	0	39
7	Cerrito	27	+3	38
8	Sportivo Huracan	27	−3	36
9	CA River Plate	27	−2	34
10	La Luz	27	−6	34
11	Miramar	27	−7	30
12	Paysandu	27	−5	29
13	Tacuarembo	27	−11	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	27	−10	26