Cerrito v Rentistas prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CerritoDrawRentistas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rentistas 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rentistas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cerrito 32%, draw 29%, Rentistas 39%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Cerrito v RentistasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Cerrito win32%

Draw29%

Rentistas win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cerrito

Rentistas

8Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rentistas winFirst published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Rentistas a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cerrito v Rentistas~~1.09 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 36~~7 v 3

~~The market · Rentistas win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rentistas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerrito win	32%	30%	+2
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Rentistas win	39%	40%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	24%	−3
Cerrito or draw	61%	60%	+1
Cerrito clean sheet	29%	–	–
Rentistas clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.1 11.8 7.4 3.1 1 10.4 13.4 8.1 3.3 2 5.8 7.1 4.4 3 2.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerrito down, Rentistas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerrito at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rentistas away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Cerrito, 1.24 for Rentistas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REN 0–0 CER · REN 0–1 CER · CER 1–2 REN · CER 1–0 REN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept

CERRITO

DDLWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

RENTISTAS

WLWWLW1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	24	+6	37
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	24	+5	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	24	−9	25
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	−13	21