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CA River Plate v Uruguay Montevideo

CA River Plate

1–2Full time

Uruguay Montevideo

Segunda División · SAT 24 OCT · Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

CA River Plate 1–2 Uruguay Montevideo CA RIVER PLATE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CA River Plate win~~45%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CA River Plate win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: CA River Plate was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF CA River Plate v Uruguay Montevideo
26′Uruguay Montevideo find the net on 26′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–59
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' CA River Plate 0–1 Uruguay Montevideo
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' CA River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Uruguay Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was CA River Plate win 41%)
27′We said CA River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–59
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–60
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' CA River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
34′We said CA River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′HALF-TIME CA River Plate 0–1 Uruguay Montevideo
46′SECOND HALF CA River Plate 0–1 Uruguay Montevideo
51′We said CA River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
52′A goal for CA River Plate on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–44–23
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' CA River Plate 1–1 Uruguay Montevideo
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' CA River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 33% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Uruguay Montevideo win 67%)
53′We said CA River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–45–22
60′We said CA River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' CA River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said CA River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' CA River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' CA River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said CA River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′Uruguay Montevideo score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' CA River Plate 1–2 Uruguay Montevideo
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Uruguay Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 95%)
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME CA River Plate 1–2 Uruguay Montevideo
FTCA River Plate 1–2 Uruguay Montevideo · CA River Plate win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CA River Plate are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CA River Plate 45%, draw 26%, Uruguay Montevideo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on CA River Plate v Uruguay MontevideoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

CA River Plate win45%

Draw26%

Uruguay Montevideo win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 24

VenueParque Federico Omar Saroldi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CA River Plate

Uruguay Montevideo

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 19 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	CA River Plate	23	+6	33
14	Uruguay Montevideo	23	−14	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ca river plate winFirst published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

45% The market58%

Us45%

~~Market~~58%

We make CA River Plate a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CA River Plate v Uruguay Montevideo~~1.47 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 33 v 18~~5 v 14

~~The market · CA River Plate win~~58% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CA River Plate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CA River Plate win	45%	58%	−13
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Uruguay Montevideo win	28%	17%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
CA River Plate or draw	72%	83%	−11
CA River Plate clean sheet	34%	–	–
Uruguay Montevideo clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 8.3 4.7 1 11.0 12.5 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.9 4.9 3 4.1 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CA River Plate down, Uruguay Montevideo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,207 Segunda División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.2% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CA River Plate at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Uruguay Montevideo away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for CA River Plate, 1.10 for Uruguay Montevideo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~URU 1–1 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

CA RIVER PLATE

LDWLWL0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–2

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO

DLLLLD2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	23	+6	36
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	23	+6	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	23	−9	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	23	−14	18