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CA River Plate v Oriental

CA River Plate

3–1Full time

Oriental

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT · Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

CA River Plate 3–1 Oriental CA RIVER PLATE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CA River Plate win~~37%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.601

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CA River Plate win at 37%.
3′KICK-OFF CA River Plate v Oriental
4′Much as we predicted: CA River Plate was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was CA River Plate win 30%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' CA River Plate 1–0 Oriental
45′HALF-TIME CA River Plate 1–0 Oriental
46′CA River Plate ahead on 45′ through I. Lopez. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
46′SECOND HALF CA River Plate 1–0 Oriental
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' CA River Plate win: 37% at kick-off, 71% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' CA River Plate win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' CA River Plate 2–0 Oriental
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' CA River Plate 2–1 Oriental
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' CA River Plate 3–1 Oriental
FTFULL TIME CA River Plate 3–1 Oriental
FTCA River Plate 3–1 Oriental · CA River Plate win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CA River Plate win37%

Draw27%

Oriental win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ca river plate winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

37% The market45%

Us37%

~~Market~~45%

We make CA River Plate a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ca river plate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CA River Plate win	37%	45%	−8
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Oriental win	36%	27%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	69%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	25%	0
CA River Plate or draw	64%	73%	−9
CA River Plate clean sheet	28%	–	–
Oriental clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.0 9.6 6.2 2.7 1 9.8 12.8 8.0 3.4 2 6.4 8.1 5.1 2.2 3 2.8 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CA River Plate down, Oriental across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.4% of games this season, across 190 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CA River Plate at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Oriental away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for CA River Plate, 1.27 for Oriental. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ORI 1–2 CAR · CAR 1–3 ORI

Form · last six in Segunda División

CA RIVER PLATE

DLLDWL0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

ORIENTAL

WWLWWD2–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oriental	28	+9	45
2	Plaza Colonia	27	+12	44
3	Atenas	27	+6	44
4	Fenix	28	+10	43
5	Rentistas	27	+4	42
6	Colón	27	0	39
7	Cerrito	27	+3	38
8	Sportivo Huracan	27	−3	36
9	CA River Plate	27	−2	34
10	La Luz	27	−6	34
11	Miramar	27	−7	30
12	Paysandu	27	−5	29
13	Tacuarembo	27	−11	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	27	−10	26