Atenas v Miramar prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Atenas 1–1 Miramar ATENAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atenas win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.744

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.781

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atenas win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atenas was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–31
8′Much as we predicted: Atenas was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
30′A goal for Atenas on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
32′A goal for Atenas on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
45′We published Atenas at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–5
56′54′ and it is 1–1: Miramar have scored. 1–1 · 26–52–22
57′54′ and it is 1–1: Miramar have scored. 1–1 · 26–53–21
78′We said Atenas at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–77–11
88′We said Atenas at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–95–2
90′We said Atenas at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atenas win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atenas win: 40% at kick-off, 13% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atenas win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Atenas 1–1 Miramar
FTAtenas 1–1 Miramar · Atenas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atenas win40%

Draw30%

Miramar win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atenas

Miramar

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Atenas	27	+6	44
12	Miramar	27	−7	30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atenas winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Atenas a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atenas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atenas win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Miramar win	31%	34%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	36%	46%	−10
Both teams to score	43%	52%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	63%	71%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	17%	26%	−9
Atenas or draw	69%	66%	+3
Atenas clean sheet	38%	–	–
Miramar clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.0 11.3 5.7 1 13.3 13.5 6.5 2.2 2 7.9 7.7 3.8 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atenas down, Miramar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atenas at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Miramar away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Atenas, 0.99 for Miramar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MIR 1–1 ATE · MIR 0–1 ATE · ATE 0–0 MIR · ATE 0–1 MIR

Form · last six in Segunda División

ATENAS

LWDWDW0–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

MIRAMAR

DLWWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oriental	29	+7	45
2	Plaza Colonia	27	+12	44
3	Atenas	27	+6	44
4	Fenix	28	+10	43
5	Rentistas	28	+3	42
6	Colón	28	+2	42
7	Cerrito	28	+4	41
8	CA River Plate	28	0	37
9	Sportivo Huracan	27	−3	36
10	La Luz	27	−6	34
11	Paysandu	28	−4	32
12	Miramar	27	−7	30
13	Tacuarembo	28	−12	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	28	−12	26