Wanderers v Progreso prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WanderersDrawProgreso

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Wanderers 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wanderers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wanderers 49%, draw 26%, Progreso 25%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Wanderers v ProgresoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Wanderers win49%

Draw26%

Progreso win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Alfredo Victor Viera

RefereeMathias De Armas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wanderers

Progreso

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
16	Progreso	33	−17	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wanderers winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market44%

Us49%

~~Market~~44%

We make Wanderers a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wanderers v Progreso~~1.48 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 32~~7 v 16

~~The market · Wanderers win~~44% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wanderers win	49%	44%	+5
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Progreso win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Wanderers or draw	75%	72%	+3
Wanderers clean sheet	38%	–	–
Progreso clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.7 8.4 4.1 1 12.7 12.3 6.0 2 9.4 9.1 4.4 3 4.7 4.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wanderers down, Progreso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 268 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wanderers at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Progreso away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Wanderers, 0.97 for Progreso. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WAN 2–0 PRO · PRO 2–1 WAN · PRO 2–0 WAN · WAN 1–1 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept

WANDERERS

DDWWLL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–3

PROGRESO

LWWLDW1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	34	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	34	+12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	34	+3	46
9	Juventud	34	−4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	−14	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	34	−10	36
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32