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Wanderers v Boston River

Wanderers

1–3Full time

Boston River

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Wanderers 1–3 Boston River WANDERERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wanderers win~~46%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.832

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wanderers win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Wanderers 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
8′Boston River find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–56
21′Boston River ahead on 8′ through Martín González. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–58
29′Boston River ahead on 8′ through Martín González. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–26–60
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Boston River win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Wanderers win 14%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Boston River win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Wanderers win 14%)
45′SECOND HALF Wanderers 1–1 Boston River
46′HALF-TIME Wanderers 1–1 Boston River
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Boston River win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Wanderers win 14%)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Boston River
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Joaquin Nicolas·Cabral · Wanderers
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Wanderers · On: Santiago Ormeño · Off: Joaquín Zeballos Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Boston River · On: Agustin Aguirre · Off: Marco Mancebo Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Santiago benitez · Wanderers
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Santiago benitez · Wanderers
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Wanderers 1–2 Boston River · Facundo Labandeira
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Wanderers 1–2 Boston River · Joaquin Nicolas·Cabral
83′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Wanderers · On: Jonathan Urretaviscaya · Off: Santiago benitez Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Wanderers · On: Renzo·Sanchez Veiga · Off: José Alberti Corrected
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Wanderers 1–3 Boston River · Joaquin Nicolas·Cabral
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Boston River · On: Facundo Aristegui · Off: Francisco Bonfiglio Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Wanderers 1–3 Boston River · Nicolas Siri
92′⚽ GOAL · 91' Wanderers 1–3 Boston River · Nicolas Siri
FTFULL TIME Wanderers 1–3 Boston River
FTWanderers 1–3 Boston River · Wanderers win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wanderers win46%

Draw28%

Boston River win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bolton & Millwall should move for Swansea City ace in 2027Football League World · 11 hours ago · Bolton, Millwall, Swansea, Wanderers

How a folk band, football club and Fifa 11 came together for unlikely anthemBBC Sport · 2 days ago · Wanderers

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera

Referee · Javier Feres

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Wanderers

4-3-3

33 A. Buffa

31 N. Furtado

13 F. Formiliano

2 N. Cabral

17 A. Garcia

5 N. Queiroz

21 S. Benitez

16 J. Alberti

30 F. Labandeira

24 J. Zeballos

10 L. Cosentino

Coach · Mathias Corujo

Substitutes

9 · S. Ormeno

80 · J. Urretaviscaya

26 · R. Sanchez

7 · R. Rivero

25 · G. Freitas

Boston River

3-4-2-1

1 B. Antunez

3 M. Mancebo

30 M. Gonzalez

4 I. Fernandez

31 J. Acosta

5 R. A. Saravia Salvia

10 A. Amado

22 F. Martinez

26 F. Munoa

16 L. Suhr

9 F. Bonfiglio

Coach · Diego Jaume

Substitutes

12 · J. Gonzalez

25 · A. Aguirre

6 · F. Saravia

24 · J. S. O'Neill Lopez

17 · M. Orona

29 · A. Lima

20 · F. Avenatti

13 · F. Aristegui

8 · L. Suarez

27 · N. Siri

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Wanderers

4-3-3

33 A. Buffa

31 N. Furtado

13 F. Formiliano

2 N. Cabral

17 A. Garcia

5 N. Queiroz

21 S. Benitez

16 J. Alberti

30 F. Labandeira

24 J. Zeballos

10 L. Cosentino

Coach · Mathias Corujo

Substitutes

9 · S. Ormeno

80 · J. Urretaviscaya

26 · R. Sanchez

7 · R. Rivero

25 · G. Freitas

Boston River

3-4-2-1

1 B. Antunez

3 M. Mancebo

30 M. Gonzalez

4 I. Fernandez

31 J. Acosta

5 R. A. Saravia Salvia

10 A. Amado

22 F. Martinez

26 F. Munoa

16 L. Suhr

9 F. Bonfiglio

Coach · Diego Jaume

Substitutes

12 · J. Gonzalez

25 · A. Aguirre

6 · F. Saravia

24 · J. S. O'Neill Lopez

17 · M. Orona

29 · A. Lima

20 · F. Avenatti

13 · F. Aristegui

8 · L. Suarez

27 · N. Siri

Our number · wanderers winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

46% The market41%

Us46%

~~Market~~41%

We make Wanderers a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wanderers win	46%	41%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Boston River win	26%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−6
Wanderers or draw	74%	70%	+4
Wanderers clean sheet	39%	–	–
Boston River clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 10.7 9.6 4.5 1 13.6 12.9 6.0 2 9.1 8.5 4.0 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wanderers down, Boston River across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,078 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 251 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wanderers at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Boston River away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Wanderers, 0.94 for Boston River. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BOS 4–1 WAN · BOS 1–0 WAN · WAN 0–2 BOS · BOS 0–1 WAN

Form · last six in Primera División

WANDERERS

WLDDWW3–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

BOSTON RIVER

DLLLLD1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+29	66
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	32	0	50
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Defensor Sporting	31	−8	35
12	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
13	Cerro	31	−22	33
14	Boston River	31	−13	31
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	31	−19	28