Racing Montevideo v Wanderers prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Racing Montevideo 3–0 Wanderers RACING MONTEVIDEO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Racing Montevideo win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.491

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Racing Montevideo win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Racing Montevideo was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–28
1′KICK-OFF Racing Montevideo v Wanderers
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Wanderers
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Racing Montevideo win 35%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Racing Montevideo win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
45′HALF-TIME Racing Montevideo 0–0 Wanderers
46′SECOND HALF Racing Montevideo 0–0 Wanderers
48′We said Racing Montevideo at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–47–22
53′We said Racing Montevideo at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
57′We published Racing Montevideo at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Racing Montevideo 1–0 Wanderers
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Racing Montevideo win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Racing Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
58′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 81–16–3
60′Racing Montevideo find the net on 57′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Racing Montevideo win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
68′We published Racing Montevideo at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′We published Racing Montevideo at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Racing Montevideo · On: ivan manzur · Off: tomas habib
70′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Wanderers
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Racing Montevideo 2–0 Wanderers
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Racing Montevideo win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
71′A goal for Racing Montevideo on 69′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
73′We published Racing Montevideo at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′Racing Montevideo score on 72′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Racing Montevideo 3–0 Wanderers
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Wanderers · On: jonas luna · Off: Nicolás Queiroz
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Wanderers · On: Jonathan Urretaviscaya · Off: Facundo Labandeira
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Racing Montevideo · On: Samuel Gallo · Off: Sebastian Da Silva
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Racing Montevideo · On: Elias Bentancor · Off: Guillermo Cotugno
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Wanderers · On: Mateo acosta · Off: Fabricio Formiliano
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wanderers · On: Leandro Zazpe · Off: Joaquin Nicolas·Cabral
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wanderers · On: Santiago Ormeño · Off: Joaquín Zeballos
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Racing Montevideo · On: franco suarez · Off: Juan Bosca
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Racing Montevideo · On: Nicolas Sosa · Off: yuri oyarzo
FTFULL TIME Racing Montevideo 3–0 Wanderers
FTRacing Montevideo 3–0 Wanderers · Racing Montevideo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing Montevideo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Montevideo 43%, draw 29%, Wanderers 28%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Racing Montevideo v WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Racing Montevideo win43%

Draw29%

Wanderers win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundClausura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Osvaldo Roberto

RefereeGustavo Tejera

Line-ups

Racing Montevideo

4-4-2

Wanderers

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Montevideo

Wanderers

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Racing Montevideo	32	+9	53
7	Wanderers	32	+2	50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Racing Montevideo

4-4-2

12 F. Varese

29 F. González

4 G. Cotugno

13 Abdulkadir Ceri

17 R. Ferreira

10 E. da Silva

5 Juan Bosca

34 A. De la Cuesta Airoldi

37 Y. Oyarzo

16 T. Habib

9 E. da Silva

Coach · C. Chambian

Substitutes

1 · F. Machado

27 · Matias Unyicio

11 · F. Suárez

23 · N. Sosa

81 · ivan manzur

8 · L. Loprete

40 · S. Gallo

30 · R. Gadea

22 · Thiago Fernandez

20 · E. Bentancor

Wanderers

4-3-3

33 A. Buffa

31 N. Furtado

13 F. Formiliano

2 N. Cabral

15 D. Mencia

16 J. Alberti

25 G. Freitas

5 N. Queiroz

30 F. Labandeira

24 J. Zeballos

10 L. Cosentino

Coach · M. Corujo

Our number · racing montevideo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market45%

Us43%

~~Market~~45%

We make Racing Montevideo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing Montevideo v Wanderers~~1.22 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 53 v 50~~5 v 7

~~The market · Racing Montevideo win~~45% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Racing Montevideo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Montevideo win	43%	45%	−2
Draw	29%	29%	0
Wanderers win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Both teams to score	42%	49%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	24%	−7
Racing Montevideo or draw	72%	74%	−2
Racing Montevideo clean sheet	40%	–	–
Wanderers clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 12.1 10.7 5.0 1 14.2 13.2 6.0 2 8.7 8.0 3.7 3 3.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Montevideo down, Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing Montevideo at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wanderers away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Racing Montevideo, 0.92 for Wanderers. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~WAN 1–2 RAC · RAC 1–0 WAN · RAC 0–0 WAN · WAN 0–0 RAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

RACING MONTEVIDEO

LWDLLL0–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

WANDERERS

LDDWWL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+25	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Club Nacional	32	+10	55
5	Racing Montevideo	32	+9	53
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	32	+2	50
8	Albion FC	32	0	40
9	Juventud	32	−2	40
10	Central Espanol	32	−11	38
11	Cerro	32	−21	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	−9	35
13	Boston River	32	−11	34
14	Cerro Largo	32	−8	33
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	32	−19	29