Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Racing MontevideoDrawCerro Largo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Racing Montevideo 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing Montevideo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Montevideo 47%, draw 29%, Cerro Largo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Racing Montevideo v Cerro LargoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Racing Montevideo win47%

Draw29%

Cerro Largo win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Osvaldo Roberto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Montevideo

Cerro Largo

7Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Uruguay

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Racing Montevideo	34	+12	57
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing montevideo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Racing Montevideo a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo~~1.26 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 57 v 34~~5 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Montevideo win	47%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Cerro Largo win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Racing Montevideo or draw	77%	–	–
Racing Montevideo clean sheet	46%	–	–
Cerro Largo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 13.1 10.1 4.0 1 16.2 12.7 5.0 2 10.2 8.0 3.1 3 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Montevideo down, Cerro Largo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 269 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing Montevideo at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cerro Largo away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Racing Montevideo, 0.79 for Cerro Largo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAC 1–0 CER · CER 0–1 RAC · CER 2–2 RAC · RAC 1–1 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept

RACING MONTEVIDEO

DLLLWD0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 3–3

CERRO LARGO

DLLLLD0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	34	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	34	+22	62
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	34	+12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	34	+3	46
9	Juventud	34	−4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	−14	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	34	−10	36
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	34	−15	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32