Penarol v Wanderers prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PenarolDrawWanderers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Penarol 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penarol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Penarol 57%, draw 25%, Wanderers 18%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Penarol v WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Penarol win57%

Draw25%

Wanderers win18%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:30

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Penarol

Wanderers

8Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · penarol winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Penarol a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Penarol v Wanderers~~1.61 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 64 v 50~~1 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penarol win	57%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Wanderers win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Penarol or draw	82%	–	–
Penarol clean sheet	46%	–	–
Wanderers clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 9.4 7.1 2.8 1 14.8 11.4 4.4 2 11.9 9.1 3.6 3 6.4 4.9 4 2.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penarol down, Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 269 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penarol at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Wanderers away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Penarol, 0.77 for Wanderers. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PEN 5–1 WAN · WAN 1–0 PEN · PEN 3–0 WAN · PEN 2–0 WAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept

PENAROL

WDWDLD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

WANDERERS

DDWWLL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	34	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	34	+22	62
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	34	+12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	34	+3	46
9	Juventud	34	−4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	−14	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	34	−10	36
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	34	−15	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32