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Penarol v Progreso

Penarol

1–1Full time

Progreso

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Centenario

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:00

Penarol 1–1 Progreso PENAROL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Penarol win~~68%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.123

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.103

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Penarol win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Penarol 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–20–12
1′KICK-OFF Penarol v Progreso
4′Little has changed for our model: Penarol 68% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–12
5′SUBSTITUTION · 5' Progreso · Progreso
25′We said Penarol at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–29–39
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Penarol 0–1 Progreso
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Penarol win: 68% at kick-off, 32% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Progreso win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Penarol win 32%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Penarol win: 68% at kick-off, 67% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Penarol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Progreso win 12%)
26′We said Penarol at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–29–39
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Penarol win: 68% at kick-off, 67% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Penarol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Progreso win 12%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Penarol win: 68% at kick-off, 32% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Progreso win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Penarol win 32%)
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Penarol 0–1 Progreso · nahuel lopez
45′SECOND HALF Penarol 0–1 Progreso
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Penarol win: 68% at kick-off, 32% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Progreso win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Penarol win 32%)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Penarol · On: Ignacio alegre · Off: nahuel herrera
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Penarol · On: Ignacio alegre · Off: nahuel herrera
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Penarol
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Penarol · On: eduardo darias · Off: leandro umpierrez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Progreso · On: Gastón Silva · Off: Ayrton Cougo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Progreso · On: Matteo copelotti · Off: Maximiliano Juambeltz
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Penarol · On: Lucas Hernández · Off: Thiago Espinosa
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Penarol
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Penarol · On: Franco González · Off: Cristian Jaime
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Progreso · On: Santino Bruschi · Off: Agustín Ocampo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Progreso · On: Agustin Codagnone · Off: Facundo De Leon
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Penarol 1–1 Progreso · nahuel lopez
93′⚽ GOAL · 92' Penarol 1–1 Progreso · Abel Hernández
FTFULL TIME Penarol 1–1 Progreso
FTPenarol 1–1 Progreso · Penarol win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Penarol win68%

Draw20%

Progreso win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:30

Venue · Estadio Centenario

Referee · Mathias De Armas

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Penarol

3-4-2-1

29 W. Aguerre

6 L. Ferreira

2 G. Pezzella

34 N. Herrera

7 J. Cabrera

5 E. Remedi

8 N. Fernandez

26 T. N. Espinosa Dovat

11 C. Jaime

32 L. Umpierrez

19 M. Arezo

Coach · Diego Aguirre

Substitutes

1 · S. Britos

3 · M. Lemos

27 · Lucas Hernandez

28 · I. Alegre

13 · E. Darias

21 · Jesus Trindade

80 · F. Gonzalez

9 · F. Batista

33 · J. Rodriguez

99 · A. Hernandez

Progreso

4-2-3-1

1 R. Bacchia

24 E. Alvarez

15 M. Martin

6 M. Saravia

40 A. Cougo

5 A. Pinheiro

25 R. Cristobal

17 F. De Leon

10 N. Lopez

7 A. Ocampo

8 M. Juambeltz

Coach · Tabare Silva

Substitutes

12 · L. Fernandez

18 · G. Silva

2 · S. Cardozo Coitinho

21 · S. Bruschi

13 · H. Carroso

30 · A. Codagnone

26 · J. Pablo Oliva

20 · G. Silva

27 · G. Silva

23 · M. Copelotti

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Penarol

3-4-2-1

29 W. Aguerre

6 L. Ferreira

2 G. Pezzella

34 N. Herrera

7 J. Cabrera

5 E. Remedi

8 N. Fernandez

26 T. N. Espinosa Dovat

11 C. Jaime

32 L. Umpierrez

19 M. Arezo

Coach · Diego Aguirre

Substitutes

1 · S. Britos

3 · M. Lemos

27 · Lucas Hernandez

28 · I. Alegre

13 · E. Darias

21 · Jesus Trindade

80 · F. Gonzalez

9 · F. Batista

33 · J. Rodriguez

99 · A. Hernandez

Progreso

4-2-3-1

1 R. Bacchia

24 E. Alvarez

15 M. Martin

6 M. Saravia

40 A. Cougo

5 A. Pinheiro

25 R. Cristobal

17 F. De Leon

10 N. Lopez

7 A. Ocampo

8 M. Juambeltz

Coach · Tabare Silva

Substitutes

12 · L. Fernandez

18 · G. Silva

2 · S. Cardozo Coitinho

21 · S. Bruschi

13 · H. Carroso

30 · A. Codagnone

26 · J. Pablo Oliva

20 · G. Silva

27 · G. Silva

23 · M. Copelotti

Our number · penarol winPublished 10 Oct 22:32

68% The market67%

Us68%

~~Market~~67%

We make Penarol a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–0.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penarol win	68%	67%	+1
Draw	20%	20%	0
Progreso win	12%	13%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	45%	44%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Penarol or draw	88%	87%	+1
Penarol clean sheet	49%	–	–
Progreso clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.0%

0123450 6.4 4.5 1 12.7 9.3 3.3 2 13.0 9.4 3.4 3 8.9 6.4 2.3 4 4.6 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penarol down, Progreso across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,078 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 251 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penarol at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Progreso away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Penarol, 0.72 for Progreso. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 22:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PRO 0–2 PEN · PRO 1–3 PEN · PRO 0–2 PEN · PEN 3–1 PRO

Form · last six in Primera División

PENAROL

WWWWDW4–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

PROGRESO

WWLWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+29	66
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	32	0	50
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Defensor Sporting	31	−8	35
12	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
13	Cerro	31	−22	33
14	Boston River	31	−13	31
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	31	−19	28