Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:00

Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Penarol PENAROL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Penarol win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.690

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Penarol win at 40%.
2′KICK-OFF Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol
3′Much as we predicted: Penarol was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Penarol
24′We said Penarol at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Penarol
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Penarol win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Liverpool Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Penarol win 14%)
27′GOAL DISALLOWED · 27' Liverpool Montevideo
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Penarol win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Enzo Castillo Sosa · Liverpool Montevideo
35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Mauricio Lemos · Penarol
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Liverpool Montevideo win 28%)
45′SECOND HALF Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 Penarol
46′A red card for Penarol on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 27–42–32
46′🟥 RED CARD · 46' Penarol
46′HALF-TIME Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 Penarol
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Penarol win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Penarol · On: Thiago Espinosa · Off: Mauricio Lemos
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Eric Remedi · Penarol
54′We said Penarol at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 24–47–28
56′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–49–28
62′7 shots for Liverpool Montevideo, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–54–25
63′We said Penarol at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Rubén Bentancourt · Off: Renzo Machado
67′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Liverpool Montevideo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Diego Romero Lanz · Off: Kevin Lewis
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Penarol win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Penarol at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
73′We said Penarol at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 82–16–2
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Penarol
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Penarol win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Liverpool Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
75′Federico Martinez scores for Liverpool Montevideo on 73′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–15–2
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Diego Zabala · Off: Ramiro Matias Degregorio
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Penarol · On: Abel Hernández · Off: Matías Arezo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Penarol · On: Franco González · Off: Cristian Jaime
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Penarol · On: Roberto Fernández · Off: Javier Cabrera
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Penarol win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Germán Pezzella · Penarol
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Liverpool Montevideo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Liverpool Montevideo
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Santiago Laquidain · Off: Lucas acosta
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Santiago Milano Larrosa · Off: Nicolas Garayalde
94′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Penarol · On: Luis Miguel Angulo · Off: Eric Remedi
95′Full time, 1–0. We called Penarol at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Penarol
FTLiverpool Montevideo 1–0 Penarol · Penarol win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penarol are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool Montevideo 33%, draw 27%, Penarol 40%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Liverpool Montevideo v PenarolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Liverpool Montevideo win33%

Draw27%

Penarol win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:30

RoundClausura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Alfredo Victor Viera

RefereeEsteban Ostojich

Line-ups

Liverpool Montevideo

3-4-1-2

Penarol

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liverpool Montevideo

Penarol

9Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Liverpool Montevideo

3-4-1-2

1 M. Bernatene

3 S. Strasorier

23 E. Castillo

18 A. Cayetano

24 R. Haller

5 N. Garayalde

16 Lucas Acosta Moreno

34 K. Lewis

10 R. Degregorio

7 F. Martínez

9 R. Machado

Coach · J. Fossati

Substitutes

19 · R. Bentancourt

26 · T. Brizuela

25 · M. Campaña

15 · S. Laquidaín

6 · S. Milano

4 · F. Perdomo

33 · Joaquin Pintos

27 · D. Romero

22 · D. Zabala

8 · M. Mir

Penarol

3-4-2-1

29 W. Aguerre

34 N. Herrera

2 G. Pezzella

3 M. Lemos

7 J. Cabrera

5 E. Remedi

21 J. Trindade

13 E. Darias

11 C. Jaime

32 L. Umpiérrez

19 M. Arezo

Coach · D. Aguirre

Substitutes

28 · I. Alegre

77 · L. Angulo

1 · S. Britos

26 · Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat

8 · N. Fernández

80 · F. González

99 · A. Hernández

27 · L. Hernández

15 · M. Olivera

33 · J. Rodríguez

Our number · penarol winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Penarol a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol~~1.14 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 50 v 63~~6 v 1

~~The market · Penarol win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Penarol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Liverpool Montevideo win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Penarol win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
Liverpool Montevideo or draw	60%	58%	+2
Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet	28%	–	–
Penarol clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 11.3 7.3 3.2 1 10.0 12.9 8.3 3.6 2 5.7 7.3 4.7 2.0 3 2.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Liverpool Montevideo down, Penarol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,088 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.7% of games this season, across 261 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Liverpool Montevideo at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Penarol away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Liverpool Montevideo, 1.29 for Penarol. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 22:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PEN 2–1 LIV · PEN 0–2 LIV · LIV 0–0 PEN · LIV 2–2 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO

WLDWWD1–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

PENAROL

WWWDWD3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+25	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
4	Racing Montevideo	33	+12	56
5	Club Nacional	32	+10	55
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	33	+1	43
9	Juventud	33	−4	40
10	Central Espanol	32	−11	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	33	−10	35
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Progreso	33	−17	32
16	Danubio	32	−15	29