Juventud v Racing Montevideo prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo JUVENTUD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juventud win~~37%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.607

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juventud win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Juventud v Racing Montevideo
4′Much as we predicted: Juventud was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–34
7′Much as we predicted: Juventud was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–33
7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Racing Montevideo
19′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Agustín De la Cuesta Airoldi · Racing Montevideo
19′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Racing Montevideo
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Juventud 1–0 Racing Montevideo
35′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Juventud
35′⚽ GOAL · 33' Juventud 1–0 Racing Montevideo · Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani
38′Juventud ahead on 33′ through Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
39′Juventud ahead on 33′ through Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–7
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Juventud win: 37% at kick-off, 71% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Juventud win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Juventud
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo · Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Juventud win: 37% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo
46′SECOND HALF Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Racing Montevideo · On: franco suarez · Off: felipe alvarez Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Racing Montevideo · On: ivan manzur · Off: Sebastian Da Silva Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Juventud · On: Emmanuel Más · Off: Patricio Ezequiel Pernicone Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Juventud · On: Emanuel Cecchini · Off: Mirko Diaz Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Racing Montevideo
78′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani · Juventud
78′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Juventud
81′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Juventud
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Juventud · On: Fabrizio Correa · Off: Carlos Sosa Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Racing Montevideo · On: lucca loprete · Off: Alex Vázquez Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Juventud · On: facundo dominguez · Off: Bruno Larregui Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Juventud · On: facundo perez · Off: Ramiro Miguel Peralta Corrected
FTFULL TIME Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo
FTJuventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo · Juventud win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Juventud win37%

Draw29%

Racing Montevideo win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueEstadio Parque Artigas

RefereeJose Burgos

Line-ups

Juventud

4-3-1-2

Racing Montevideo

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Juventud

Racing Montevideo

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
10	Juventud	31	−4	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Juventud

4-3-1-2

1 S. Sosa

24 F. Barrandeguy

5 D. Morosini

2 P. Pernicone

8 K. Rolon

22 R. Chagas

14 L. Roldan

37 R. Peralta

31 M. Diaz

7 A. Alaniz

10 B. Larregui

Coach · Ruben Blanco Soto Sergio

Substitutes

12 · F. N. Correa Gonzalez

4 · M. Caceres

21 · F. Perez

19 · E. Cecchini

26 · G. Pereiro

27 · J. Boselli

29 · F. Dominguez

20 · B. Arady

23 · E. Mas

25 · I. Mujica

Racing Montevideo

3-4-1-2

12 F. Varese

3 Brazionis

13 F. Alvarez

17 M. Ferreira

4 G. Cotugno

5 J. Bosca

34 Agustin De la Cuesta

37 Y. Oyarzo

39 A. Vazquez

9 S. Da Silva

10 E. Da Silva

Coach · Cristian Chambian

Substitutes

1 · F. Machado

8 · L. Loprete

11 · F. Suarez

20 · E. Bentancor

23 · N. Sosa

27 · M. Unyicio

29 · F. Gonzalez

30 · R. Gadea

33 · J. Guarino

81 · I. Manzur

Our number · juventud winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Juventud a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventud win	37%	36%	+1
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Racing Montevideo win	34%	34%	0
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Juventud or draw	66%	66%	0
Juventud clean sheet	34%	–	–
Racing Montevideo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.1 11.5 6.3 2.3 1 12.1 13.4 7.1 2.6 2 7.1 7.6 4.1 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventud down, Racing Montevideo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,081 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventud at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Racing Montevideo away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Juventud, 1.08 for Racing Montevideo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RAC 2–1 JUV · JUV 2–1 RAC · JUV 1–0 RAC

Form · last six in Primera División

JUVENTUD

WDDWDD2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

RACING MONTEVIDEO

WLWDLL1–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	33	+29	67
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	33	−2	50
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Cerro	32	−21	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	−9	35
13	Boston River	32	−11	34
14	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	32	−19	29