Juventud v Penarol prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 02:30

Juventud 0–0 Penarol PENAROL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Penarol win~~46%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Penarol win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Juventud v Penarol
2′Little has changed for our model: Penarol 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–27–45
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Penarol win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Penarol win 38%)
45′SECOND HALF Juventud 0–0 Penarol
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Juventud
46′HALF-TIME Juventud 0–0 Penarol
47′We said Penarol at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 23–43–34
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 21–48–31
58′We said Penarol at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Penarol · On: Matías Arezo · Off: Javier Cabrera
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Penarol · On: leandro umpierrez · Off: Thiago Espinosa
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Penarol · On: Brian Barboza · Off: Ignacio alegre
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Penarol win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
67′We said Penarol at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–59–24
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Juventud · On: Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani · Off: Ramiro Miguel Peralta
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Juventud · On: Mirko Diaz · Off: Gastón Pereiro
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Penarol · On: Lucas Hernández · Off: Maximiliano Olivera
74′We said Penarol at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Penarol · On: Jonathan Rodriguez · Off: Abel Hernández
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Penarol win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Juventud · On: facundo dominguez · Off: Bruno Larregui
80′We said Penarol at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 9–78–13
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Brian Barboza · Penarol
83′We said Penarol at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Juventud
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Penarol win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Penarol
90′We said Penarol at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–92–4
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Penarol
92′Penarol are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 2–95–3
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Juventud
95′0–0 at the end. Our 46% on Penarol misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Juventud 0–0 Penarol
FTJuventud 0–0 Penarol · Penarol win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penarol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juventud 28%, draw 27%, Penarol 46%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Juventud v PenarolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Juventud win28%

Draw27%

Penarol win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Centenario

RefereeAndrés Matías Matonte Cabrera

Line-ups

Juventud

4-3-2-1

Penarol

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juventud

Penarol

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Juventud

4-3-2-1

1 S. Sosa

24 F. Barrandeguy

2 P. Pernicone

5 david morosini

8 K. Rolón

19 R. Cecchini

14 L. Roldán

37 R. Peralta

22 R. Chagas

26 G. Pereiro

10 B. Larregui

Coach · Sergio Blanco

Substitutes

7 · A. Alaniz

27 · J. Boselli

4 · M. Cáceres

12 · F. Correa

31 · Mirko Diaz

29 · facundo dominguez

23 · E. Más

25 · I. Mujica

21 · Facundo Nahuel Pérez Bertinat

16 · R. Rabino

Penarol

4-2-3-1

29 W. Aguerre

28 I. Alegre

2 G. Pezzella

34 N. Herrera

15 M. Olivera

5 E. Remedi

8 N. Fernández

7 J. Cabrera

26 Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat

11 C. Jaime

99 A. Hernández

Coach · D. Aguirre

Substitutes

77 · L. Angulo

19 · M. Arezo

36 · B. Barboza

1 · S. Britos

80 · F. González

3 · M. Lemos

27 · L. Hernández

16 · T. Olase

33 · J. Rodríguez

32 · L. Umpiérrez

Our number · penarol winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make Penarol a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juventud v Penarol~~1.01 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 40 v 63~~9 v 1

~~The market · Penarol win~~47% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Penarol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventud win	28%	25%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Penarol win	46%	47%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Juventud or draw	54%	53%	+1
Juventud clean sheet	25%	–	–
Penarol clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.2 12.6 8.7 4.1 1 9.2 12.6 8.7 4.1 2 4.7 6.4 4.4 2.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventud down, Penarol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,092 Primera División matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventud at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Penarol away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Juventud, 1.39 for Penarol. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PEN 2–2 JUV · PEN 1–0 JUV · JUV 0–2 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 13 Sept

JUVENTUD

DWDDWL1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

PENAROL

WWDWDL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	33	+24	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	33	+12	56
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	33	+1	43
9	Juventud	33	−4	40
10	Central Espanol	33	−12	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	33	−10	35
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32