Home › Football › Primera División › Deportivo Maldonado v Liverpool Montevideo

Deportivo Maldonado v Liverpool Montevideo

Deportivo Maldonado

1–1Full time

Liverpool Montevideo

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 02:30

Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo DEPORTIVO MALDONADO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Deportivo Maldonado win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.751

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Maldonado win at 39%.
0′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Maldonado was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Maldonado v Liverpool Montevideo
17′SUBSTITUTION · 18' Liverpool Montevideo · Liverpool Montevideo
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' nicolas fuica · Deportivo Maldonado
21′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Deportivo Maldonado win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Liverpool Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Deportivo Maldonado win 14%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Deportivo Maldonado
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Santiago strasorier · Liverpool Montevideo
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Maldonado 0–0 Liverpool Montevideo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Maldonado · On: maxiliano alis sequeira noble · Off: Gonzalo Sebastián Sosa Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Hernán Menosse · Off: Cayetano Bolzán Corrected
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Hernán Menosse · Deportivo Maldonado
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Adriano Freitas · Off: Diego Alexandre·Segovia Hernandez Corrected
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo · Diego Romero Lanz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Diego Zabala · Off: Ramiro Matias Degregorio Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Diego Zabala · Off: Ramiro Matias Degregorio Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo · Diego Romero Lanz
79′⚽ GOAL · 76' Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo · Juan Ramos
79′SUBSTITUTION · 18' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Diego Romero Lanz · Off: Facundo Barcelo Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 20' nicolas fuica · Deportivo Maldonado
79′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Santiago Ramírez · Deportivo Maldonado
79′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Santiago strasorier · Liverpool Montevideo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Hernán Menosse · Off: Cayetano Bolzán Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Maldonado · On: maxiliano alis sequeira noble · Off: Gonzalo Sebastián Sosa Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Hernán Menosse · Deportivo Maldonado
79′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Adriano Freitas · Off: Diego Alexandre·Segovia Hernandez Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 62' Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo · Diego Romero Lanz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Emiliano Mozzone · Off: Camilo Mayada Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Diego Zabala · Off: Ramiro Matias Degregorio Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Santiago Milano Larrosa · Off: Federico Martinez Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Santiago Laquidain · Off: Rafael Haller Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Liverpool Montevideo · On: Ezequiel·Olivera Reymundo · Off: Kevin Lewis Corrected
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Lucas·Nunez · Off: Santiago Ramírez Corrected
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Liverpool Montevideo
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo
FTDeportivo Maldonado 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo · Deportivo Maldonado win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportivo Maldonado win39%

Draw27%

Liverpool Montevideo win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Referee · Gustavo Tejera

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Deportivo Maldonado

4-3-1-2

25 D. Segovia

4 J. M. Ginzo

2 N. Fuica

19 F. Tealde

22 J. Ramos

18 C. Mayada

8 M. Gonzalez

27 G. Sosa

17 S. Ramirez

9 C. Bolzan

16 R. Cesar

Coach · Joaquin Boghossian

Substitutes

1 · A. Freitas

32 · H. Petryk

5 · L. Nunez

31 · F. Marino

10 · A. M. Noble Sequeira

30 · L. Ibanez

42 · J. Fernandez

3 · H. Menosse

29 · E. Mozzone

23 · A. Vila

Liverpool Montevideo

3-4-1-2

1 M. Bernatene

3 S. Strasorier

23 E. Castillo

18 A. Cayetano

24 R. Haller

5 N. Garayalde

16 L. Acosta

34 K. Lewis

10 R. M. Degregorio

7 F. Martinez

31 F. Barcelo

Coach · Jorge Fossati

Substitutes

25 · M. Campana

4 · F. Perdomo

6 · S. Milano

15 · S. Laquidain

27 · D. Romero

8 · M. Mir

22 · D. Zabala

17 · G. de Mello

29 · E. Olivera

33 · J. Pintos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Maldonado

4-3-1-2

25 D. Segovia

4 J. M. Ginzo

2 N. Fuica

19 F. Tealde

22 J. Ramos

18 C. Mayada

8 M. Gonzalez

27 G. Sosa

17 S. Ramirez

9 C. Bolzan

16 R. Cesar

Coach · Joaquin Boghossian

Substitutes

1 · A. Freitas

32 · H. Petryk

5 · L. Nunez

31 · F. Marino

10 · A. M. Noble Sequeira

30 · L. Ibanez

42 · J. Fernandez

3 · H. Menosse

29 · E. Mozzone

23 · A. Vila

Liverpool Montevideo

3-4-1-2

1 M. Bernatene

3 S. Strasorier

23 E. Castillo

18 A. Cayetano

24 R. Haller

5 N. Garayalde

16 L. Acosta

34 K. Lewis

10 R. M. Degregorio

7 F. Martinez

31 F. Barcelo

Coach · Jorge Fossati

Substitutes

25 · M. Campana

4 · F. Perdomo

6 · S. Milano

15 · S. Laquidain

27 · D. Romero

8 · M. Mir

22 · D. Zabala

17 · G. de Mello

29 · E. Olivera

33 · J. Pintos

Our number · deportivo maldonado winPublished 10 Oct 00:00

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Deportivo Maldonado a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Maldonado win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Liverpool Montevideo win	33%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−2
Deportivo Maldonado or draw	67%	67%	−1
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet	31%	–	–
Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.7 9.8 5.8 2.3 1 10.9 12.8 7.4 2.9 2 7.2 8.2 4.8 3 3.1 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Maldonado down, Liverpool Montevideo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,076 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 249 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.86 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Maldonado at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Liverpool Montevideo away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Deportivo Maldonado, 1.17 for Liverpool Montevideo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.86

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LIV 0–2 DEP · LIV 1–2 DEP · LIV 3–2 DEP · LIV 4–2 DEP

Form · last six in Primera División

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO

LWLWWW0–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO

DWLDWW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+29	66
2	Deportivo Maldonado	31	+22	58
3	Atletico Torque	31	+15	54
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Wanderers	32	0	50
7	Liverpool Montevideo	31	+12	49
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Defensor Sporting	31	−8	35
12	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
13	Cerro	31	−22	33
14	Boston River	31	−13	31
15	Danubio	31	−14	29
16	Progreso	31	−19	28