Deportivo Maldonado v Danubio prediction · Primera División

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Maldonado are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Maldonado 50%, draw 27%, Danubio 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Maldonado v DanubioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Maldonado win50%

Draw27%

Danubio win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:30

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

RefereeJose Burgos

Line-ups

Deportivo Maldonado

3-4-3

Danubio

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Maldonado

Danubio

5Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
15	Danubio	33	−14	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Maldonado

3-4-3

1 A. Freitas

2 N. Fuica

4 Juan Martín Ginzo

19 F. Tealde

5 L. Núñez

17 Santiago Ramírez

28 S. Cartagena

20 S. Tormo

10 A. M. Noble Sequeira

14 C. Tabó

16 R. César

Coach · Gabriel Di Noia

Substitutes

42 · J. Fernández

34 · N. Forastiero

15 · S. González

30 · L. Ibanez

11 · G. López

31 · F. Marino

29 · E. Mozzone

32 · H. Petryk

27 · G. Sosa

23 · A. Vila

Danubio

4-3-1-2

1 M. Goicoechea

4 M. Rinaldi

19 M. Brasil

3 G. Rodriguez

6 L. Sosa

28 E. Femia

5 J. Millán

10 M. Peralta

14 Bautista Pereira

77 B. Tomatis

7 E. Cabrera

Coach · L. Rocco

Substitutes

2 · E. Velázquez

80 · C. Tizón

8 · S. Rodríguez

32 · K. Martínez

33 · D. Garcia

15 · E. Figueroa

20 · M. Ferreira

30 · S. Fernández

27 · I. Costantino

25 · Felipe Cabrera

Our number · deportivo maldonado winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 04:06 · locked at kick-off

50% The market49%

Us50%

~~Market~~49%

We make Deportivo Maldonado a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Maldonado v Danubio~~1.41 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 59 v 32~~2 v 15

~~The market · Deportivo Maldonado win~~49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Maldonado win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Maldonado win	50%	49%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Danubio win	22%	24%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	48%	−9
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	66%	71%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Deportivo Maldonado or draw	78%	76%	+2
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet	43%	–	–
Danubio clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 10.7 8.8 3.8 1 14.7 12.4 5.2 2 10.4 8.7 3.7 3 5.0 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Maldonado down, Danubio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,093 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 266 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2020 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Maldonado at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Danubio away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Deportivo Maldonado, 0.84 for Danubio. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 23:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2020

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–1 DAN · DAN 1–1 DEP · DEP 3–1 DAN · DAN 1–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 13 Sept

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO

LWWWDL0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3

DANUBIO

DDLWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	34	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	33	+12	56
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	33	+1	43
9	Juventud	34	−4	41
10	Central Espanol	33	−12	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	33	−10	35
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32