Defensor Sporting v Racing Montevideo

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Defensor Sporting win at 37%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Defensor Sporting 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
3. 1′KICK-OFF Defensor Sporting v Racing Montevideo
4. 8′We said Defensor Sporting at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Defensor Sporting 0–1 Racing Montevideo
6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
7. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Racing Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Defensor Sporting win 36%)
8. 10′A goal for Racing Montevideo on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
9. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Defensor Sporting 1–1 Racing Montevideo
10. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
11. 26′23′: lautaro navarro on the scoresheet for Defensor Sporting, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–36–30
12. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Defensor Sporting
13. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Racing Montevideo win 66%)
14. 41′We said Defensor Sporting at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 2–1 · 73–21–7
15. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Defensor Sporting 2–1 Racing Montevideo
16. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 73% now
17. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Defensor Sporting win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 42%)
18. 42′Defensor Sporting find the net on 40′. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–21–7
19. 42′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 73–21–7
20. 45′Defensor Sporting ahead on 41′ through alan torterolo. 2–1. 2–1 · 74–20–6
21. 45′HALF-TIME Defensor Sporting 2–1 Racing Montevideo
22. 46′SECOND HALF Defensor Sporting 2–1 Racing Montevideo
23. 48′We said Defensor Sporting at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–6
24. 51′We said Defensor Sporting at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
25. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Racing Montevideo
26. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Defensor Sporting 3–1 Racing Montevideo
27. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 95% now
28. 52′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
29. 55′lautaro navarro scores for Defensor Sporting on 51′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
30. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Racing Montevideo · On: franco suarez · Off: Facundo Gonzalez
31. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Racing Montevideo · On: Alex Vázquez · Off: yuri oyarzo
32. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
33. 62′We said Defensor Sporting at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
34. 62′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 80–17–3
35. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Lorenzo Cafaro · Defensor Sporting
36. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Defensor Sporting 3–2 Racing Montevideo
37. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 80% now
38. 63′61′: Sebastian Da Silva on the scoresheet for Racing Montevideo, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 80–17–3
39. 63′Defensor Sporting are down to ten from 61′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–2 · 80–17–3
40. 63′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Edgar Elizalde · Defensor Sporting
41. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Defensor Sporting · On: axel frugone · Off: lautaro navarro
42. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Defensor Sporting · On: Erico·Cuello Gutierrez · Off: Lorenzo Cafaro
43. 73′We said Defensor Sporting at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–1
44. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Defensor Sporting · On: Bruno Pereira · Off: Nicolas Wunsch
45. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Defensor Sporting · On: Brian Montenegro · Off: alan torterolo
46. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
47. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Racing Montevideo · On: ramiro brazionis · Off: Agustín De la Cuesta Airoldi
48. 79′We said Defensor Sporting at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–10–1
49. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Racing Montevideo
50. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Guillermo De los Santos · Defensor Sporting
51. 86′We said Defensor Sporting at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 3–3 · 6–89–5
52. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Defensor Sporting 3–3 Racing Montevideo
53. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 6% now
54. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Defensor Sporting win 94%)
55. 87′Racing Montevideo level it on 85′ through Juan Bosca. 3–3. 3–3 · 5–90–5
56. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Defensor Sporting win: 37% at kick-off, 5% now
57. 88′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 5–91–4
58. 89′We said Defensor Sporting at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–92–4
59. 89′Racing Montevideo have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 3–3. 3–3 · 4–92–4
60. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Defensor Sporting · On: Diego Abella · Off: German barrios
61. FTFULL TIME Defensor Sporting 3–3 Racing Montevideo
62. FTDefensor Sporting 3–3 Racing Montevideo · Defensor Sporting win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.