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Defensor Sporting v Cerro

Defensor Sporting

2–3Full time

Cerro

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Luis Franzini

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Defensor Sporting 2–3 Cerro DEFENSOR SPORTING WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensor Sporting win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.933

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.971

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 54 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Defensor Sporting win at 50%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Defensor Sporting 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
3′KICK-OFF Defensor Sporting v Cerro
13′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Cerro
15′⚽ GOAL · 16' Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro
22′⚽ GOAL · 16' Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro · Xavier biscayzacu
22′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Defensor Sporting
24′16′ and it is 1–0: Xavier biscayzacu on the scoresheet for Defensor Sporting. 1–0 · 79–16–5
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Defensor Sporting win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 23' axel frugone · Defensor Sporting
33′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Brahian Alemán · Cerro
45′SECOND HALF Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro
46′We said Defensor Sporting at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Defensor Sporting win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Emiliano Rodriguez · Cerro
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Defensor Sporting 2–0 Cerro · Xavier biscayzacu
56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Defensor Sporting · On: Diego Abella · Off: axel frugone Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Defensor Sporting · On: Nicolas Scotti · Off: Xavier biscayzacu Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cerro · On: Leonardo Pais · Off: pablo nongoy Corrected
56′⚽ GOAL · 52' Defensor Sporting 2–0 Cerro · Brian Montenegro
56′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera · Cerro
58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera · Cerro
58′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera · Cerro
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Defensor Sporting · On: Diego Abella · Off: axel frugone Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Defensor Sporting · On: Nicolas Scotti · Off: Xavier biscayzacu Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cerro · On: Leonardo Pais · Off: pablo nongoy Corrected
58′⚽ GOAL · 52' Defensor Sporting 2–0 Cerro · Brian Montenegro
62′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Cerro
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Lucas agazzi · Defensor Sporting
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cerro · On: Agustin Miranda · Off: Brahian Alemán Corrected
72′🟥 RED CARD · 72' Defensor Sporting
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Defensor Sporting
74′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cerro · On: Ezequiel Forclaz · Off: Cristian Barros Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cerro · On: Agustin Miranda · Off: Brahian Alemán Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Cerro
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Nicolas Wunsch · Defensor Sporting
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Defensor Sporting
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Defensor Sporting 2–1 Cerro · Brian Montenegro
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Defensor Sporting
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Defensor Sporting
80′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Nicolas Wunsch · Defensor Sporting
80′⚽ GOAL · 77' Defensor Sporting 2–1 Cerro · Agustin Miranda
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Cerro
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Cerro
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Defensor Sporting 2–2 Cerro · Agustin Miranda
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Cerro
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Defensor Sporting · On: pablo neris · Off: Brian Montenegro Corrected
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Defensor Sporting
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Cerro
91′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Defensor Sporting · On: Tomás Pozzo · Off: Nicolas Wunsch Corrected
91′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Yonatan Irrazábal · Cerro
91′🟨 YELLOW · 85' pablo neris · Defensor Sporting
91′⚽ GOAL · 86' Defensor Sporting 2–2 Cerro · Alejo Macelli
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Defensor Sporting
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Defensor Sporting 2–3 Cerro · Alejo Macelli
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Guillermo De los Santos · Defensor Sporting
96′⚽ GOAL · 93' Defensor Sporting 2–3 Cerro
FTFULL TIME Defensor Sporting 2–3 Cerro
FTDefensor Sporting 2–3 Cerro · Defensor Sporting win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Defensor Sporting win50%

Draw28%

Cerro win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Estadio Luis Franzini

Referee · Hernan Heras

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Defensor Sporting

4-2-3-1

12 K. Dawson

4 G. Rodriguez

14 F. Sorondo

2 E. Elizalde

15 A. Frugone

5 G. Barrios

24 G. De los Santos

11 L. Agazzi

8 N. Wunsch

10 X. Biscayzacu

26 B. Montenegro

Coach · Mauricio Larriera

Substitutes

23 · B. Simone

20 · M. Caballero

25 · D. Abella

30 · E. Cuello

18 · L. Cafaro

7 · N. Medina

29 · T. A. Pozzo

22 · A. Torterolo

21 · N. Scotti

9 · J. Neris

Cerro

4-3-3

12 Y. Irrazabal

22 D. Suarez

16 J. Guasone

21 N. Arena

6 F. Bregante

31 J. Amaro

5 A. Macelli

10 B. Aleman

27 C. Barros

14 E. Rodriguez

35 P. Nongoy

Coach · Alejandro Cappuccio

Substitutes

1 · D. Denis

7 · A. Severo

8 · A. Miranda

9 · B. Morales

11 · E. Forclaz

17 · G. Rodriguez

19 · E. Sosa

20 · M. Villar

32 · R. Mederos

70 · Leonardo Pais

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Defensor Sporting

4-2-3-1

12 K. Dawson

4 G. Rodriguez

14 F. Sorondo

2 E. Elizalde

15 A. Frugone

5 G. Barrios

24 G. De los Santos

11 L. Agazzi

8 N. Wunsch

10 X. Biscayzacu

26 B. Montenegro

Coach · Mauricio Larriera

Substitutes

23 · B. Simone

20 · M. Caballero

25 · D. Abella

30 · E. Cuello

18 · L. Cafaro

7 · N. Medina

29 · T. A. Pozzo

22 · A. Torterolo

21 · N. Scotti

9 · J. Neris

Cerro

4-3-3

12 Y. Irrazabal

22 D. Suarez

16 J. Guasone

21 N. Arena

6 F. Bregante

31 J. Amaro

5 A. Macelli

10 B. Aleman

27 C. Barros

14 E. Rodriguez

35 P. Nongoy

Coach · Alejandro Cappuccio

Substitutes

1 · D. Denis

7 · A. Severo

8 · A. Miranda

9 · B. Morales

11 · E. Forclaz

17 · G. Rodriguez

19 · E. Sosa

20 · M. Villar

32 · R. Mederos

70 · Leonardo Pais

Our number · defensor sporting winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make Defensor Sporting a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Defensor Sporting win	50%	52%	−1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Cerro win	22%	21%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Both teams to score	43%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	66%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	22%	−3
Defensor Sporting or draw	78%	79%	−1
Defensor Sporting clean sheet	44%	–	–
Cerro clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 10.9 8.8 3.7 1 14.8 12.5 5.2 2 10.5 8.7 3.6 3 4.9 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Defensor Sporting down, Cerro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,078 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 251 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Defensor Sporting at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cerro away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Defensor Sporting, 0.83 for Cerro. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DEF 2–1 CER · CER 1–0 DEF · DEF 2–1 CER · DEF 3–2 CER

Form · last six in Primera División

DEFENSOR SPORTING

LDWLWL1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–3

CERRO

DWWLDL1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+29	66
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	32	0	50
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Defensor Sporting	31	−8	35
12	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
13	Cerro	31	−22	33
14	Boston River	31	−13	31
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	31	−19	28