Club Nacional v Liverpool Montevideo prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club NacionalDrawLiverpool Montevideo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Club Nacional 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Nacional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Nacional 50%, draw 24%, Liverpool Montevideo 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Club Nacional v Liverpool MontevideoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Club Nacional win50%

Draw24%

Liverpool Montevideo win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 22:30

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueGran Parque Central

RefereeGustavo Tejera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Nacional

Liverpool Montevideo

6Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Uruguay

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club nacional winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Club Nacional a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Nacional v Liverpool Montevideo~~1.67 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 58 v 53~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Nacional win	50%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Liverpool Montevideo win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Club Nacional or draw	74%	–	–
Club Nacional clean sheet	32%	–	–
Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.2 6.9 3.9 1 10.1 11.4 6.5 2.5 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.0 3 4.7 5.3 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Nacional down, Liverpool Montevideo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,093 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 266 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Nacional at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Liverpool Montevideo away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Club Nacional, 1.14 for Liverpool Montevideo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIV 1–3 CLU · CLU 3–1 LIV · LIV 2–2 CLU · CLU 1–0 LIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept

CLUB NACIONAL

DWWWWW1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO

LDWWDW1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	34	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	33	+12	56
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	33	+1	43
9	Juventud	34	−4	41
10	Central Espanol	33	−12	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	33	−10	35
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32