Club Nacional v Deportivo Maldonado prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 02:30

Club Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Maldonado CLUB NACIONAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Nacional win~~52%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.344

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.372

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Nacional win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Club Nacional v Deportivo Maldonado
2′Little has changed for our model: Club Nacional 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Club Nacional
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Camilo Cándido · Club Nacional
35′We said Club Nacional at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Club Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Club Nacional win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–6
37′Club Nacional score on 35′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–6
45′HALF-TIME Club Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado
46′SECOND HALF Club Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado
51′We said Club Nacional at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Nacional · On: Santiago Silva · Off: Lucas Rodríguez
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Club Nacional win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Nacional · On: Tomas Viera · Off: Camilo Cándido
69′We said Club Nacional at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Camilo Mayada · Off: Santiago Cartagena
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Deportivo Maldonado
77′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Juan Ramos · Deportivo Maldonado
78′We said Club Nacional at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Club Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Maldonado
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Club Nacional win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
80′Club Nacional ahead on 78′ through Luciano Boggio. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′We said Club Nacional at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Club Nacional · On: Silvio Alejandro Martínez · Off: Maximiliano Gómez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Club Nacional · On: Maximiliano Joaquin·Silvera Cabo · Off: luciano gonzalez
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Club Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Maldonado
84′Francisco Calvo scores for Club Nacional on 82′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Club Nacional
86′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Club Nacional 3–1 Deportivo Maldonado
90′86′: Guillermo López Matturo on the scoresheet for Deportivo Maldonado, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Hernan Petrik · Off: Juan Martin·Ginzo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Guillermo López Matturo · Off: maxiliano alis sequeira noble
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Lautaro Ibanez · Off: Juan Ramos
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Maldonado · On: Lucas·Nunez · Off: Santiago Ramírez
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Club Nacional · On: Bruno Zuculini · Off: tiziano correa
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sebastián Coates · Club Nacional
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Deportivo Maldonado
93′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Club Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Maldonado
94′Deportivo Maldonado find the net on 90′. 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Club Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Maldonado
FTClub Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Maldonado · Club Nacional win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Nacional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Nacional 52%, draw 24%, Deportivo Maldonado 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Club Nacional v Deportivo MaldonadoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Club Nacional win52%

Draw24%

Deportivo Maldonado win24%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 11

VenueGran Parque Central

RefereeMathias De Armas

Line-ups

Club Nacional

3-4-1-2

Deportivo Maldonado

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Nacional

Deportivo Maldonado

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Copa Uruguay

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa Uruguay

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
5	Club Nacional	32	+10	55

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Club Nacional

3-4-1-2

22 A. Martín Arias

37 Luciano Rodriguez

4 S. Coates

5 F. Calvo

15 G. Martirena

23 L. Rodríguez

6 L. Boggio

21 C. Cándido

39 L. Gonzalez

29 T. Correa

9 M. Gómez

Coach · D. Carreño

Substitutes

36 · B. Zuculini

32 · T. Viera

11 · M. Silvera

8 · S. Silva

2 · A. Rogel

31 · R. Martinez

14 · A. Martínez

20 · R. Botta

40 · J. Bianchi

13 · E. Ancheta

Deportivo Maldonado

4-3-3

1 A. Freitas

2 N. Fuica

4 Juan Martín Ginzo

19 F. Tealde

22 J. Ramos

8 M. González

17 Santiago Ramírez

28 S. Cartagena

10 A. M. Noble Sequeira

14 C. Tabó

16 R. César

Coach · Gabriel Di Noia

Substitutes

30 · L. Ibanez

34 · N. Forastiero

42 · J. Fernández

31 · F. Marino

11 · G. López

18 · C. Mayada

29 · E. Mozzone

5 · L. Núñez

32 · H. Petryk

27 · G. Sosa

Our number · club nacional winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

52% The market50%

Us52%

~~Market~~50%

We make Club Nacional a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Nacional v Deportivo Maldonado~~1.68 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 55 v 59~~5 v 2

~~The market · Club Nacional win~~50% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Nacional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Nacional win	52%	50%	+2
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Deportivo Maldonado win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	48%	+3
Both teams to score	52%	51%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	+1
Club Nacional or draw	76%	77%	−1
Club Nacional clean sheet	36%	–	–
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.7 7.0 3.7 1 11.1 11.3 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 9.4 4.9 3 5.2 5.3 2.7 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Nacional down, Deportivo Maldonado across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Nacional at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Maldonado away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Club Nacional, 1.04 for Deportivo Maldonado. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–0 CLU · DEP 4–2 CLU · CLU 0–0 DEP · CLU 5–2 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

CLUB NACIONAL

DDWWWW2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO

WLWWWD2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+25	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
4	Racing Montevideo	33	+12	56
5	Club Nacional	32	+10	55
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	33	+1	43
9	Juventud	33	−4	40
10	Central Espanol	33	−12	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	33	−10	35
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32