Cerro v Cerro Largo prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Cerro 1–1 Cerro Largo CERRO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerro win~~36%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.720

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerro win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cerro was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
1′KICK-OFF Cerro v Cerro Largo
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Cerro
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Cerro win 32%)
28′We published Cerro at 36%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–8
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Cerro 1–0 Cerro Largo
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Cerro win: 36% at kick-off, 70% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Cerro win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 21%)
29′A goal for Cerro on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–8
38′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Cerro · On: bruno morales · Off: Emiliano Rodriguez
45′Juan Cruz Guasone scores for Cerro on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Nahuel Arena · Cerro
45′SECOND HALF Cerro 1–0 Cerro Largo
46′HALF-TIME Cerro 1–0 Cerro Largo
47′We published Cerro at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Cerro win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cerro · On: Francisco Bregante Torres · Off: rodrigo mederos
61′We published Cerro at 36%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cerro · On: Ezequiel Forclaz · Off: Cristian Barros
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cerro Largo · On: andres cordoba · Off: Gustavo Viera
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cerro Largo · On: axel pandiani · Off: joaquin bruno alvarez hernandez
71′We published Cerro at 36%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Cerro win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Cerro Largo
76′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Juan Cruz Guasone · Cerro
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Cerro
79′We published Cerro at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We published Cerro at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Cerro · On: Jorge Alejandro Severo Cordero · Off: Leonardo Pais
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Cerro
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Cerro Largo · On: Diego Daguerre · Off: Alexander Nahuel·Hernandez Dominguez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Cerro Largo · On: Borys Barone · Off: Brian Lozano
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' alexis piegas · Cerro Largo
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Cerro win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
99′We said Cerro at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–1 · 1–98–1
99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Cerro 1–1 Cerro Largo
99′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+9' Cerro win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+9' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Cerro win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Cerro 1–1 Cerro Largo
FTCerro 1–1 Cerro Largo · Cerro win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cerro just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cerro 36%, draw 31%, Cerro Largo 33%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Cerro v Cerro LargoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Cerro win36%

Draw31%

Cerro Largo win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 11

VenueMonumental Luis Tróccoli

RefereeJose Burgos

Line-ups

Cerro

4-2-3-1

Cerro Largo

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cerro

Cerro Largo

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Cerro	32	−21	36
14	Cerro Largo	32	−8	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cerro

4-2-3-1

12 Y. Irrazábal

35 P. Nongoy

16 J. Guasone

21 N. Arena

17 Gianni Rodríguez

5 A. Macelli

8 A. Miranda

32 R. Mederos

27 C. Barros

70 L. Pais

14 E. Rodriguez

Coach · Alejandro Cappuccio

Substitutes

6 · F. Bregante

1 · D. Denis

11 · E. Forclaz

2 · facundo iraola

3 · A. Lima

9 · B. Morales

13 · B. Quinteros

7 · A. Severo

20 · Mauro Villar

33 · Alan Zamurio

Cerro Largo

4-3-3

12 P. González

17 A. Hernández

3 A. Piegas

19 A. Prado

20 S. Franca

15 A. Assis

5 S. Marcel

30 joaquin bruno alvarez hernandez

7 G. Viera

26 E. de León

29 B. Lozano

Coach · B. Silva

Substitutes

23 · A. Cordoba

10 · Axel Michele Pandiani

25 · E. Jourdan

24 · L. González

8 · M. García

6 · R. Ergas

18 · Diego Daguerre

21 · Ezequiel Cabral

22 · N. Bertochi

13 · Borys Santiago Barone Grillo

Our number · cerro winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

36% The market42%

Us36%

~~Market~~42%

We make Cerro a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cerro v Cerro Largo~~1.04 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 36 v 33~~11 v 14

~~The market · Cerro win~~42% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cerro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerro win	36%	42%	−6
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Cerro Largo win	33%	28%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	60%	65%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−5
Cerro or draw	67%	72%	−5
Cerro clean sheet	38%	–	–
Cerro Largo clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 13.4 12.9 6.4 2.1 1 13.6 13.5 6.6 2.2 2 7.1 7.0 3.4 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerro down, Cerro Largo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 257 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerro at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cerro Largo away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Cerro, 0.99 for Cerro Largo. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 22:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Cerro Largo 2–0 Cerro · Cerro Largo 1–1 Cerro · Cerro 0–1 Cerro Largo · Cerro 2–1 Cerro Largo

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 4 Sept

CERRO

WWLDLW1–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–2

CERRO LARGO

LDLLLL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+25	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Club Nacional	32	+10	55
5	Racing Montevideo	32	+9	53
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	32	+2	50
8	Albion FC	32	0	40
9	Juventud	32	−2	40
10	Central Espanol	32	−11	38
11	Cerro	32	−21	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	−9	35
13	Boston River	32	−11	34
14	Cerro Largo	32	−8	33
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	32	−19	29