Cerro Largo v Boston River prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cerro LargoDrawBoston River

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cerro Largo 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cerro Largo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cerro Largo 39%, draw 30%, Boston River 31%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Cerro Largo v Boston RiverBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cerro Largo win39%

Draw30%

Boston River win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

RefereeHernan Heras

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cerro Largo

Boston River

4Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Uruguay

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cerro largo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Cerro Largo a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cerro Largo v Boston River~~1.11 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 34 v 37~~14 v 11

~~The market · Cerro Largo win~~34% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cerro Largo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerro Largo win	39%	34%	+5
Draw	30%	30%	0
Boston River win	31%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	34%	41%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	48%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	22%	−6
Cerro Largo or draw	69%	65%	+4
Cerro Largo clean sheet	38%	–	–
Boston River clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 12.8 12.1 5.8 1 13.9 13.4 6.4 2.1 2 7.7 7.4 3.6 3 2.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerro Largo down, Boston River across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 269 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerro Largo at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Boston River away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Cerro Largo, 0.96 for Boston River. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CER 3–0 BOS · BOS 1–0 CER · CER 2–2 BOS · BOS 1–0 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept

CERRO LARGO

DLLLLD0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

BOSTON RIVER

LLLDWW2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	34	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	34	+12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	34	+3	46
9	Juventud	34	−4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	−14	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	34	−10	36
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32