Cerro Largo v Albion FC prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Cerro Largo 0–1 Albion FC CERRO LARGO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerro Largo win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.702

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerro Largo win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cerro Largo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
29′Much as we predicted: Cerro Largo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–36–29
65′We said Cerro Largo at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–58–19
85′Alvaro Lopez scores for Albion FC on 77′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Albion FC win 26%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Albion FC win 26%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Albion FC win 26%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Albion FC win 26%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Albion FC win 26%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Cerro Largo win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Albion FC win 26%)
FTFULL TIME Cerro Largo 0–1 Albion FC
FTCerro Largo 0–1 Albion FC · Cerro Largo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cerro Largo win40%

Draw28%

Albion FC win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

RefereeEsteban Guerra

Line-ups

Cerro Largo

4-3-2-1

Albion FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cerro Largo

Albion FC

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
14	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Cardiff City laughed at £8m West Brom deal - look where he is nowFootball League World · 52 min ago · Cardiff, West Brom, Albion FC

He played for Birmingham City and West Brom – now he owns a building businessFootball League World · 4 hours ago · Birmingham, West Brom, Albion FC

Ten-player Brighton win at Sunderland to stay thirdSky Sports · 23 hours ago · Brighton, Sunderland, Albion FC

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cerro Largo

4-3-2-1

12 P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda

17 A. Hernandez

3 A. Piegas

19 A. Prado

20 S. Franca

8 M. Garcia

15 S. Assis

25 E. Jourdan

29 B. Lozano

10 A. Pandiani

18 D. Daguerre

Coach · Danielo Nunez

Substitutes

24 · L. Gonzalez

6 · R. Ergas

16 · F. Acosta

28 · N. Ramos

7 · G. Viera

21 · E. Cabral

23 · Pipe

30 · B. Hernandez

13 · B. Barone

26 · E. de Leon

Albion FC

4-2-3-1

1 S. Jaume

2 F. Couture

13 P. Lacoste

24 M. de los Santos

29 F. Puente

6 T. Moschion

5 F. Ginella

7 I. Zufiaurre

11 H. Toledo

16 J. Alvarez

32 T. Figueroa

Coach · Federico Nieves

Substitutes

31 · S. Silva

80 · B. Llana

20 · R. Gutierrez

27 · S. Costa

8 · N. Neira

21 · L. Rodriguez Trezza

22 · A. Vera

30 · B. Barcia

10 · C. Airala

9 · A. Lopez

Our number · cerro largo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Cerro Largo a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerro Largo win	40%	38%	+1
Draw	28%	30%	−1
Albion FC win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−3
Cerro Largo or draw	68%	68%	0
Cerro Largo clean sheet	34%	–	–
Albion FC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.2 10.5 5.8 2.1 1 12.0 13.2 7.0 2.6 2 7.5 8.0 4.3 3 3.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerro Largo down, Albion FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,081 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerro Largo at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Albion FC away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Cerro Largo, 1.08 for Albion FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALB 2–2 CER · ALB 2–1 CER

Form · last six in Primera División

CERRO LARGO

DLDLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

ALBION FC

LLLLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	33	+29	67
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	33	−2	50
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Cerro	32	−21	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	−9	35
13	Boston River	32	−11	34
14	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	32	−19	29