Central Espanol v Club Nacional prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:00

Central Espanol 0–1 Club Nacional CLUB NACIONAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Nacional win~~52%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.351

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Nacional win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Central Espanol v Club Nacional
2′Little has changed for our model: Club Nacional 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 24–25–52
4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Central Espanol
14′Little has changed for our model: Club Nacional 52% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 24–27–49
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Central Espanol 0–1 Club Nacional
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Central Espanol 0–1 Club Nacional · tiziano correa
30′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Central Espanol · On: Federico Pintado Núñez · Off: Emiliano·Marquez Fernandez
45′SECOND HALF Central Espanol 0–1 Club Nacional
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Central Espanol · On: Franco Munoz · Off: Marcos Montiel
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Central Espanol · On: J. Dellarossa · Off: raul tarragona
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Club Nacional · On: Ruben Botta · Off: luciano gonzalez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Central Espanol · On: Francisco Montoro · Off: Mariano Aguilera
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Central Espanol · On: facundo sosa · Off: Fernando Camarda
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Club Nacional · On: Tomás Verón Lupi · Off: tiziano correa
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Club Nacional · On: Maximiliano Joaquin·Silvera Cabo · Off: Maximiliano Gómez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Club Nacional · On: Emiliano Ancheta · Off: Gaston Martirena
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' J. Dellarossa · Central Espanol
94′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Sebastián Coates · Club Nacional
FTFULL TIME Central Espanol 0–1 Club Nacional
FTCentral Espanol 0–1 Club Nacional · Club Nacional win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Central Espanol win24%

Draw24%

Club Nacional win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:30

VenueEstadio Centenario

RefereeLeodan Gonzalez

Line-ups

Central Espanol

4-2-3-1

Club Nacional

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Central Espanol

Club Nacional

8Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Central Espanol

4-2-3-1

1 E. Marquez

17 L. Fernandez

2 I. Rodriguez

14 A. Villoldo

26 Cesar Nunes

24 G. Gandolfo

4 M. Montiel

8 F. Camarda

21 L. Pino

10 M. Aguilera

9 R. Tarragona

Coach · Antonio Pacheco

Substitutes

12 · F. Pintado

22 · E. Aramburu

25 · A. Madruga

3 · J. Dupont

15 · J. Pou

16 · I. Mendez

7 · F. Munoz

32 · F. Montoro

27 · F. Sosa

20 · J. Dellarossa

Club Nacional

3-4-1-2

22 A. Martin

37 L. Rodriguez

4 S. Coates

5 F. Calvo

15 G. N. Martirena Torres

6 L. Boggio

23 L. Rodriguez

21 C. Candido

39 L. Gonzalez

9 M. Gomez

29 T. Correa

Coach · Jorge Bava

Substitutes

40 · J. Bianchi

2 · A. Rogel

13 · E. Ancheta

7 · N. Rodriguez

8 · S. Silva

31 · R. Martinez

27 · T. Veron

20 · R. Botta

14 · A. Martinez

11 · M. Silvera

Our number · club nacional winPublished 11 Oct 22:31

52% The market58%

Us52%

~~Market~~58%

We make Club Nacional a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · club nacional win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Espanol win	24%	17%	+6
Draw	24%	24%	0
Club Nacional win	52%	58%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	49%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	+1
Central Espanol or draw	48%	42%	+6
Central Espanol clean sheet	19%	–	–
Club Nacional clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.8 10.8 9.1 5.1 2.2 1 6.8 11.6 9.5 5.3 2.3 2 3.7 6.0 5.0 2.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Espanol down, Club Nacional across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,081 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Espanol at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Club Nacional away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Central Espanol, 1.68 for Club Nacional. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 22:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CLU 0–1 CEN

Form · last six in Primera División

CENTRAL ESPANOL

LDDLLL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–3

CLUB NACIONAL

WDDWWW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	33	+29	67
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	33	−2	50
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Cerro	32	−21	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	−9	35
13	Boston River	32	−11	34
14	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
15	Danubio	32	−15	29
16	Progreso	32	−19	29