Central Espanol v Albion FC prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Central Espanol 1–3 Albion FC CENTRAL ESPANOL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Central Espanol win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.602

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Central Espanol win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Central Espanol was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
2′KICK-OFF Central Espanol v Albion FC
6′We said Central Espanol at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Central Espanol 0–1 Albion FC
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Central Espanol win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Central Espanol win 37%)
7′Albion FC score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
15′We said Central Espanol at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
27′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Albion FC
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–66
30′🟥 RED CARD · 30' Central Espanol
38′A red card for Central Espanol on 31′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 10–22–68
40′We said Central Espanol at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Central Espanol win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′SECOND HALF Central Espanol 0–1 Albion FC
47′HALF-TIME Central Espanol 0–1 Albion FC
62′We said Central Espanol at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
70′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Albion FC
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Central Espanol 0–2 Albion FC
76′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Albion FC · On: Mateo Baltasar Barcia Fernández · Off: Hernán Toledo Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Albion FC · On: Santiago Nicolas·Costa · Off: Francisco Ginella Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Central Espanol · On: raul tarragona · Off: isaac mendez
84′Albion FC ahead on 77′ through Tobías Figueroa. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Central Espanol · On: Francisco Montoro · Off: facundo sosa
91′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Albion FC · On: Ignacio Neira · Off: Federico Puente
91′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Albion FC · On: Lucas Rodriguez Trezza · Off: Carlos Airala
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Central Espanol 0–3 Albion FC
93′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Central Espanol 1–3 Albion FC
94′Full time, 1–3. We called Central Espanol at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Central Espanol 1–3 Albion FC
FTCentral Espanol 1–3 Albion FC · Central Espanol win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Central Espanol just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Espanol 38%, draw 27%, Albion FC 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Central Espanol v Albion FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Central Espanol win38%

Draw27%

Albion FC win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueParque Palermo

RefereeJavier Feres

Line-ups

Central Espanol

4-3-3

Albion FC

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Espanol

Albion FC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Albion FC	33	+1	43
10	Central Espanol	33	−12	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Central Espanol

4-3-3

1 F. Pintado

17 L. Fernández

2 I. Rodriguez

14 A. Villoldo

3 J. Dupont

24 G. Gandolfo

16 I. Méndez

8 F. Camarda

21 L. Pino

10 M. Aguilera

11 F. Sosa

Coach · A. Pacheco

Substitutes

18 · Facundo Yocco

12 · Alan Benitez

28 · Andres Caro

25 · A. Madruga

32 · Francisco Montoro

7 · F. Munoz

15 · J. Pou

19 · Santiago Sequeira

9 · R. Tarragona

6 · Mateo Urrutia

Albion FC

4-3-3

1 S. Jaume

2 F. Couture

13 P. Lacoste

24 M. de los Santos

29 F. Puente

6 T. Moschión

5 F. Ginella

11 H. Toledo

10 C. Airala

16 J. Álvarez

32 T. Figueroa

Coach · D. Franco

Substitutes

30 · B. Barcia

27 · S. Costa

20 · R. Gutiérrez

80 · B. Llana

17 · M. Marichal

8 · I. Neira

21 · L. Rodríguez

12 · S. Silva

22 · A. Vera

33 · F. Abreu

Our number · central espanol winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Central Espanol a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Central Espanol v Albion FC~~1.27 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 43~~10 v 8

~~The market · Central Espanol win~~33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Central Espanol win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Espanol win	38%	33%	+5
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Albion FC win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	24%	0
Central Espanol or draw	65%	63%	+2
Central Espanol clean sheet	30%	–	–
Albion FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.6 10.2 6.2 2.5 1 10.6 12.7 7.7 3.1 2 6.7 8.0 4.8 3 2.9 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Espanol down, Albion FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,093 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 266 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Espanol at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Albion FC away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Central Espanol, 1.21 for Albion FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALB 6–1 CEN · ALB 0–0 CEN · CEN 1–1 ALB · ALB 1–2 CEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept

CENTRAL ESPANOL

DLLLLL0–0 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

ALBION FC

LLLWWW1–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	33	+24	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	33	+12	56
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	33	+1	43
9	Juventud	33	−4	40
10	Central Espanol	33	−12	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	33	−10	35
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32