Boston River v Defensor Sporting prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Boston River 1–0 Defensor Sporting BOSTON RIVER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boston River win~~36%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.632

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boston River win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Boston River 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Boston River v Defensor Sporting
15′We said Boston River at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Boston River 1–0 Defensor Sporting
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Boston River win: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
17′A goal for Boston River on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–10
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Boston River
38′We said Boston River at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–22–9
41′lautaro vazquez scores for Boston River on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Boston River
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Boston River
45′SECOND HALF Boston River 1–0 Defensor Sporting
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Boston River
46′HALF-TIME Boston River 1–0 Defensor Sporting
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Defensor Sporting · On: alan torterolo · Off: Xavier biscayzacu
85′We said Boston River at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–0 · 94–6–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ignacio Fernandez · Boston River
85′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Boston River · On: Facundo Saravia · Off: lautaro vazquez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Defensor Sporting · On: Nicolas Scotti · Off: Guillermo De los Santos
85′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Facundo Saravia · Boston River
85′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Boston River · On: Gastón Ramírez · Off: Agustin amado
85′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Boston River · On: Nicolas Siri · Off: Facundo Ezequiel Munoa dos Santos
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Boston River win: 36% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We said Boston River at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Defensor Sporting · On: Erico·Cuello Gutierrez · Off: German barrios
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Defensor Sporting · On: lautaro navarro · Off: Lucas agazzi
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Boston River win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Boston River · On: Agustin Aguirre · Off: Ignacio Fernandez
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Defensor Sporting · On: Diego Abella · Off: gianfranco rodriguez
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Boston River · On: Felipe Avenatti · Off: Francisco Bonfiglio
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Boston River
92′We said Boston River at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–95–2
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Boston River 1–1 Defensor Sporting
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Boston River win: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Boston River win 2%)
93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Defensor Sporting
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Boston River win: 36% at kick-off, 98% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Boston River win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
94′1–0 at the end. Our 36% on Boston River comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Defensor Sporting
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Boston River win: 36% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Boston River 1–0 Defensor Sporting
FTBoston River 1–0 Defensor Sporting · Boston River win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Boston River just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Boston River 36%, draw 28%, Defensor Sporting 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Boston River v Defensor SportingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Boston River win36%

Draw28%

Defensor Sporting win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundClausura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Campeones Olimpicos

RefereeBruno Sacarelo Roig

Line-ups

Boston River

3-4-2-1

Defensor Sporting

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boston River

Defensor Sporting

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Uruguay

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Defensor Sporting	32	−9	35
14	Boston River	32	−11	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Boston River

3-4-2-1

1 B. Antúnez

31 J. Acosta

30 M. González

4 Ignacio Fernandez

15 L. Vazquez

5 R. Saravia

10 A. Amado

22 F. Martínez

26 F. Muñoa

16 L. Suhr

9 F. Bonfiglio

Coach · Jorge Cazulo

Substitutes

25 · A. Aguirre

13 · F. Aristegui

20 · F. Avenatti

12 · J. González

3 · M. Mancebo

24 · J. O'Neill

11 · G. Ramírez

6 · F. Saravia

27 · N. Siri

8 · L. Suárez

Defensor Sporting

4-2-3-1

12 K. Dawson

4 G. Rodriguez

14 francisco sorondo

3 G. de los Santos

15 A. Frugone

5 G. Barrios

24 L. de los Santos

11 L. Agazzi

8 Nicolás Andrés Wunsch Tomás

10 Xavier biscayzacu

26 B. Montenegro

Coach · M. Larriera

Substitutes

22 · A. Torterolo

23 · B. Simone

21 · N. Scotti

29 · T. Pozzo

99 · Lautaro Navarro

2 · E. Elizalde

30 · E. Cuello

18 · Lorenzo Cafaro

20 · Mateo Caballero

25 · Diego Abella

Our number · boston river winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market35%

Us36%

~~Market~~35%

We make Boston River a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boston River v Defensor Sporting~~1.16 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 34 v 35~~14 v 12

~~The market · Boston River win~~35% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boston River win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boston River win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Defensor Sporting win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Boston River or draw	64%	65%	−1
Boston River clean sheet	32%	–	–
Defensor Sporting clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.2 11.3 6.6 2.6 1 11.3 13.2 7.6 2.9 2 6.6 7.6 4.4 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boston River down, Defensor Sporting across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boston River at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Defensor Sporting away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Boston River, 1.16 for Defensor Sporting. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEF 1–1 BOS · DEF 2–0 BOS · BOS 4–0 DEF · DEF 2–0 BOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept

BOSTON RIVER

LLLLDW0–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–1

DEFENSOR SPORTING

DWLWLL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+25	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	+16	57
4	Club Nacional	32	+10	55
5	Racing Montevideo	32	+9	53
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	+12	50
7	Wanderers	32	+2	50
8	Albion FC	32	0	40
9	Juventud	33	−4	40
10	Central Espanol	32	−11	38
11	Cerro	33	−21	37
12	Defensor Sporting	32	−9	35
13	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
14	Boston River	32	−11	34
15	Progreso	33	−17	32
16	Danubio	32	−15	29