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Atletico Torque v Danubio

Atletico Torque

1–0Full time

Danubio

Primera División · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Charrúa

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:30

Atletico Torque 1–0 Danubio ATLETICO TORQUE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atletico Torque win~~51%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.360

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.381

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Torque win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Torque was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Torque v Danubio
19′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Danubio · Danubio
33′🟥 RED CARD · 33' Atletico Torque
35′🟥 RED CARD · 34' Kevin Isaias·Silva · Atletico Torque
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Atletico Torque win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ivan Rossi · Danubio
45′SECOND HALF Atletico Torque 0–0 Danubio
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Danubio
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Danubio · On: Enzo Cabrera · Off: Benjamin Azambuja Corrected
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Atletico Torque 1–0 Danubio
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Atletico Torque 1–0 Danubio
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Atletico Torque 1–0 Danubio · Salomón Rodríguez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Danubio · On: Cristhian Andres Tizon Correa · Off: Sebastián Rodriguez Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Danubio · On: Sebastián Fernández · Off: Joaquin Gabriel Trasante Hernandez Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atletico Torque · On: Diogo Guzmán · Off: Luka Andrade Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atletico Torque · On: Alexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero · Off: Franco Pizzichillo Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Diogo Guzmán · Atletico Torque
82′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Danubio
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Cristhian Andres Tizon Correa · Danubio
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Pablo Siles · Atletico Torque
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Atletico Torque · On: Gary Kagelmacher · Off: Salomón Rodríguez Corrected
FTFULL TIME Atletico Torque 1–0 Danubio
FTAtletico Torque 1–0 Danubio · Atletico Torque win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atletico Torque win51%

Draw26%

Danubio win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio Charrúa

Referee · Esteban Ostojich

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Atletico Torque

4-3-3

1 F. Torgnascioli

17 E. Aguero

3 K. Silva

22 B. Gutierrez

14 S. Zampieri

5 F. Pizzichillo

8 P. Siles

20 G. Montes

10 E. Obregon

9 S. Rodriguez

7 L. Andrade

Coach · Marcelo Mendez

Substitutes

13 · G. Rodriguez

24 · G. Kagelmacher

27 · J. Taran

15 · E. Busquets

19 · D. Guzman

23 · L. Dure

32 · S. Caceres

18 · R. Lecchini

30 · J. Quintana

11 · N. Da Silva

Danubio

4-4-2

1 M. Goicoechea

4 M. Rinaldi

19 M. Brasil

3 G. Rodriguez

6 L. Sosa

10 M. Peralta

16 I. Rossi

38 J. Trasante

8 S. Rodriguez

21 B. Azambuja

77 B. Tomatis

Coach · Gustavo Matosas

Substitutes

32 · K. Martinez

29 · M. Jourdan

33 · D. Garcia

28 · E. Femia

5 · J. Millan

17 · A. Velazquez

80 · C. Tizon

7 · E. Cabrera

30 · S. Fernandez

20 · M. Ferreira

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Torque

4-3-3

1 F. Torgnascioli

17 E. Aguero

3 K. Silva

22 B. Gutierrez

14 S. Zampieri

5 F. Pizzichillo

8 P. Siles

20 G. Montes

10 E. Obregon

9 S. Rodriguez

7 L. Andrade

Coach · Marcelo Mendez

Substitutes

13 · G. Rodriguez

24 · G. Kagelmacher

27 · J. Taran

15 · E. Busquets

19 · D. Guzman

23 · L. Dure

32 · S. Caceres

18 · R. Lecchini

30 · J. Quintana

11 · N. Da Silva

Danubio

4-4-2

1 M. Goicoechea

4 M. Rinaldi

19 M. Brasil

3 G. Rodriguez

6 L. Sosa

10 M. Peralta

16 I. Rossi

38 J. Trasante

8 S. Rodriguez

21 B. Azambuja

77 B. Tomatis

Coach · Gustavo Matosas

Substitutes

32 · K. Martinez

29 · M. Jourdan

33 · D. Garcia

28 · E. Femia

5 · J. Millan

17 · A. Velazquez

80 · C. Tizon

7 · E. Cabrera

30 · S. Fernandez

20 · M. Ferreira

Our number · atletico torque winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

51% The market50%

Us51%

~~Market~~50%

We make Atletico Torque a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Torque win	51%	50%	+1
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Danubio win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Atletico Torque or draw	77%	77%	0
Atletico Torque clean sheet	38%	–	–
Danubio clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.1 7.6 3.8 1 12.2 12.0 5.8 2 9.7 9.3 4.5 3 5.1 4.9 2.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Torque down, Danubio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,076 Primera División matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 249 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.14 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Torque at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Danubio away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Atletico Torque, 0.97 for Danubio. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 DAN · DAN 1–1 ATL · DAN 3–2 ATL · ATL 1–1 DAN

Form · last six in Primera División

ATLETICO TORQUE

WWWLDL2–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

DANUBIO

LLDDLW0–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	32	+29	66
2	Deportivo Maldonado	31	+22	58
3	Atletico Torque	31	+15	54
4	Racing Montevideo	31	+11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	+9	52
6	Wanderers	32	0	50
7	Liverpool Montevideo	31	+12	49
8	Central Espanol	31	−10	38
9	Albion FC	31	−1	37
10	Juventud	31	−4	37
11	Defensor Sporting	31	−8	35
12	Cerro Largo	31	−7	33
13	Cerro	31	−22	33
14	Boston River	31	−13	31
15	Danubio	31	−14	29
16	Progreso	31	−19	28