Atletico Torque v Cerro prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico TorqueDrawCerro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Torque 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Torque are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Torque 53%, draw 24%, Cerro 22%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Torque v CerroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Torque win53%

Draw24%

Cerro win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Luis Franzini

RefereeEsteban Ostojich

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Torque

Cerro

4Days since last match9

Last match: 21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Last match: 16 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
12	Cerro	33	−21	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico torque winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market62%

Us53%

~~Market~~62%

We make Atletico Torque a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Torque v Cerro~~1.66 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 57 v 37~~4 v 12

~~The market · Atletico Torque win~~62% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Torque win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Torque win	53%	62%	−9
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Cerro win	22%	15%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	48%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Atletico Torque or draw	78%	85%	−7
Atletico Torque clean sheet	38%	–	–
Cerro clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.4 7.0 3.4 1 11.9 11.5 5.6 2 9.9 9.5 4.6 3 5.5 5.3 2.6 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Torque down, Cerro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 269 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2020 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Torque at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cerro away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Atletico Torque, 0.97 for Cerro. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2020

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CER 1–1 ATL · ATL 1–2 CER · CER 1–2 ATL · ATL 1–0 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 13 Sept

ATLETICO TORQUE

WLDLWL4–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

CERRO

WLDLWD3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Penarol	34	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	33	+21	59
3	Club Nacional	33	+11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	+15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	34	+12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	+13	53
7	Wanderers	33	−1	50
8	Albion FC	34	+3	46
9	Juventud	34	−4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	−14	38
11	Boston River	33	−10	37
12	Cerro	33	−21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	34	−10	36
14	Cerro Largo	33	−8	34
15	Danubio	33	−14	32
16	Progreso	33	−17	32