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Albion FC v Atletico Torque

Albion FC
2–1Full time
Atletico Torque

Primera División · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Luis Franzini

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Albion FC 2–1 Atletico Torque ATLETICO TORQUE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Atletico Torque win38%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.608
The market’s Brier score0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Torque win at 38%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Torque was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Albion FC v Atletico Torque
  4. 28′Atletico Torque have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–31–35
  5. 37′We published Atletico Torque at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–22–68
  6. 37′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–68
  7. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Albion FC 0–1 Atletico Torque
  8. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Atletico Torque win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  9. 38′Atletico Torque score on 37′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–68
  10. 38′Atletico Torque score on 38′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–68
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Albion FC 0–1 Atletico Torque
  12. 46′We published Atletico Torque at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
  13. 46′HALF-TIME Albion FC 0–1 Atletico Torque
  14. 53′Atletico Torque have had 14 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 28–43–29
  15. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Albion FC 1–1 Atletico Torque
  16. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Atletico Torque win: 38% at kick-off, 29% now
  17. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Atletico Torque win 29%)
  18. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Atletico Torque win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  19. 57′Albion FC level it on 54′ through Carlos Airala. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–45–28
  20. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Albion FC · On: Tobías Figueroa · Off: Alvaro Lopez
  21. 60′We said Atletico Torque at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
  22. 64′We said Atletico Torque at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
  23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Atletico Torque · On: Gonzalo Montes · Off: Pablo Siles
  24. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Atletico Torque · On: Alexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero · Off: Franco Pizzichillo
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Albion FC · On: Agustin·Vera · Off: Carlos Airala
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Albion FC · On: Mateo Baltasar Barcia Fernández · Off: Hernán Toledo
  27. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Atletico Torque
  28. 73′We said Atletico Torque at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
  29. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Atletico Torque win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  30. 78′Atletico Torque have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 14–71–15
  31. 79′We said Atletico Torque at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
  32. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atletico Torque · On: ramiro lecchini · Off: Luka Andrade
  33. 84′We said Atletico Torque at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–83–8
  34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Atletico Torque win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  35. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Atletico Torque
  36. 90′We said Atletico Torque at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–91–4
  37. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Atletico Torque
  38. 93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  39. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Albion FC 2–1 Atletico Torque
  40. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  41. 96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' Atletico Torque
  42. 97′Full time, 2–1. We called Atletico Torque at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  43. 97′Tobías Figueroa scores for Albion FC on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  44. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Atletico Torque · On: Facundo Silvera · Off: S. Zampieri
  45. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Atletico Torque · On: ezequiel busquets · Off: Eduardo Gabriel·Aguero Ruiz
  46. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Albion FC · On: Santiago Nicolas·Costa · Off: Francisco Ginella
  47. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Albion FC · On: roman corletto gutierrez · Off: José Álvarez
  48. FTFULL TIME Albion FC 2–1 Atletico Torque
  49. FTAlbion FC 2–1 Atletico Torque · Atletico Torque win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atletico Torque just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Albion FC 37%, draw 25%, Atletico Torque 38%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Albion FC v Atletico TorqueBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Albion FC win37%
Draw25%
Atletico Torque win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundClausura · matchday 11

VenueEstadio Luis Franzini

RefereeHernan Heras

Line-ups

Albion FC

4-2-3-1

Atletico Torque

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albion FC

Atletico Torque

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa Uruguay

Last match: 14 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Annual table

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Atletico Torque32+1657
8Albion FC32040

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Albion FC

4-2-3-1

1 S. Jaume

2 F. Couture

13 P. Lacoste

24 M. de los Santos

29 F. Puente

6 T. Moschión

5 F. Ginella

11 H. Toledo

10 C. Airala

16 J. Álvarez

9 Á. López

Coach · D. Franco

Substitutes

30 · B. Barcia

27 · S. Costa

32 · T. Figueroa

20 · R. Gutiérrez

80 · B. Llana

17 · M. Marichal

8 · I. Neira

21 · L. Rodríguez

31 · S. Silva

22 · A. Vera

Atletico Torque

4-3-3

1 F. Torgnascioli

17 E. Agüero

3 K. Silva

24 G. Kagelmacher

14 S. Zampiero

5 F. Pizzichillo

8 P. Siles

19 D. Guzmán

7 Luka Andrade

9 S. Rodríguez

10 E. Obregón

Coach · Marcelo Méndez

Substitutes

27 · J. Tarán

26 · F. Silvera

13 · G. Rodríguez

30 · J. Quintana

20 · G. Montes

18 · R. Lecchini

22 · B. Gutierrez

11 · N. da Silva

32 · S. Cáceres

15 · E. Busquets

Our number · atletico torque winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
38% The market44%
Us38%
Market44%

We make Atletico Torque a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Albion FC v Atletico Torque1.41 – 1.44
Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 7 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 40 v 578 v 3
The market · Atletico Torque win44% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0718 OCT 13:53
Our probability · Atletico Torque win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Albion FC win37%28%+9
Draw25%28%−3
Atletico Torque win38%44%−6
Over 2.5 goals54%48%+6
Both teams to score57%53%+4
Over 1.5 goals78%72%+6
Over 3.5 goals32%27%+5
Albion FC or draw62%56%+6
Albion FC clean sheet24%––
Atletico Torque clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 6.0 8.3 6.0 2.9 1 8.1 11.7 8.3 4.0 2 5.8 8.2 5.8 2.8 3 2.7 3.9 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Albion FC down, Atletico Torque across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.29
Over 2.54 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsALB 1–2 ATL · ATL 0–1 ALB · ALB 2–1 ATL · ATL 2–2 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 7 Sept

ALBION FC

LLLLWW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0

ATLETICO TORQUE

WWLDLW3–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Penarol32+2563
2Deportivo Maldonado32+2259
3Atletico Torque32+1657
4Racing Montevideo33+1256
5Club Nacional32+1055
6Liverpool Montevideo32+1250
7Wanderers33−150
8Albion FC32040
9Juventud33−440
10Central Espanol32−1138
11Boston River33−1037
12Cerro33−2137
13Defensor Sporting33−1035
14Cerro Largo33−834
15Progreso33−1732
16Danubio32−1529

The competition's standings before kick-off.