Penarol v Atletico Torque prediction · Copa Uruguay

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PenarolDrawAtletico Torque

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Penarol 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penarol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Penarol 56%, draw 24%, Atletico Torque 21%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Penarol v Atletico TorqueBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Penarol win56%

Draw24%

Atletico Torque win21%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 22:30

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Penarol

Atletico Torque

4Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · penarol winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Penarol a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Penarol v Atletico Torque~~1.73 – 0.94

~~Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 26 Aug~~W1 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penarol win	56%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Atletico Torque win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Penarol or draw	79%	–	–
Penarol clean sheet	39%	–	–
Atletico Torque clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.0 6.5 3.1 1 11.9 11.2 5.3 2 10.3 9.6 4.5 3 6.0 5.5 2.6 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penarol down, Atletico Torque across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 269 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penarol at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Torque away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Penarol, 0.94 for Atletico Torque. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 PEN · PEN 1–0 ATL · PEN 3–1 ATL · ATL 0–2 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 26 Aug

PENAROL

WDD1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

ATLETICO TORQUE

LWD0–1 · 2–0 · 3–3

Penarol v Atletico Torque

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Penarol

Atletico Torque

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 26 Aug