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Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro Largo
Liverpool MontevideoCerro LargoCopa Uruguay · WED 21 OCT · Estadio Belvedere
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Liverpool Montevideo win at 52%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Liverpool Montevideo was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
- 1′KICK-OFF Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro Largo
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Liverpool Montevideo win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
- 42′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–41–19
- 45′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
- 45′SECOND HALF Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 Cerro Largo
- 46′HALF-TIME Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 Cerro Largo
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Liverpool Montevideo win 41%)
- 55′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Liverpool Montevideo win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
- 62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Cerro Largo
- 63′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
- 69′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Liverpool Montevideo win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
- 76′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–72–10
- 80′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Liverpool Montevideo win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
- 84′We said Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
- 88′We published Liverpool Montevideo at 52%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Liverpool Montevideo win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
- 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Liverpool Montevideo win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 91%)
- 89′A goal for Liverpool Montevideo on 89′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
- 94′Full time, 1–0. We called Liverpool Montevideo at 52% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo
- FTLiverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo · Liverpool Montevideo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Liverpool Montevideo are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool Montevideo 52%, draw 27%, Cerro Largo 21%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Liverpool Montevideo win52%Cerro Largo win21%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 20:00
RoundRound of 16
VenueEstadio Belvedere
Match timeline
All events
Liverpool MontevideoMINCerro LargoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División
Last match: 16 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Liverpool Montevideo a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo win | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Cerro Largo win | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 49% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Liverpool Montevideo or draw | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
| Cerro Largo clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 26 Aug
LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO
CERRO LARGO