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Model 1.1

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Deportivo Maldonado v Albion FC

Deportivo Maldonado
4–1Full time
Albion FC

Copa Uruguay · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 03:38
Deportivo Maldonado 4–1 Albion FC DEPORTIVO MALDONADO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Deportivo Maldonado win49%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.385
The market’s Brier score0.423

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Maldonado win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Maldonado 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Maldonado v Albion FC
  4. 30′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–26–57
  5. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Albion FC
  6. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Deportivo Maldonado win: 49% at kick-off, 17% now
  7. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Albion FC win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Deportivo Maldonado win 17%)
  8. 31′31′ and it is 0–1: Albion FC have scored. 0–1 · 17–26–57
  9. 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 16–26–58
  10. 39′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
  11. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Albion FC
  12. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Deportivo Maldonado win: 49% at kick-off, 38% now
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Albion FC
  14. 46′Deportivo Maldonado find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–40–22
  15. 46′HALF-TIME Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Albion FC
  16. 48′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–41–22
  17. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Albion FC win 21%)
  18. 54′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–20
  19. 58′A goal for Deportivo Maldonado on 59′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
  20. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Deportivo Maldonado 2–1 Albion FC · C. Tabo
  21. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Deportivo Maldonado win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
  22. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Deportivo Maldonado win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
  23. 59′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
  24. 60′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 81–16–3
  25. 71′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  26. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Deportivo Maldonado win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
  27. 79′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  28. 87′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  29. 92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Deportivo Maldonado 3–1 Albion FC · E. Mozzone
  30. 93′90′ and it is 3–1: Deportivo Maldonado have scored. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 93′We said Deportivo Maldonado at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Deportivo Maldonado win: 49% at kick-off, 100% now
  33. 93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Deportivo Maldonado 4–1 Albion FC · E. Mozzone
  34. 94′Deportivo Maldonado find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Deportivo Maldonado 4–1 Albion FC
  36. FTDeportivo Maldonado 4–1 Albion FC · Deportivo Maldonado win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Maldonado are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Maldonado 49%, draw 25%, Albion FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Maldonado v Albion FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Maldonado win49%
Draw25%
Albion FC win25%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Maldonado

Albion FC

6Days since last match4
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Deportivo Maldonado3+69
10Albion FC3+15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo maldonado winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off
49% The market47%
Us49%
Market47%

We make Deportivo Maldonado a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo Maldonado v Albion FC1.56 – 1.04
Last six in Copa UruguayW4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 9 v 51 v 10
The market · Deportivo Maldonado win47% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 9 OCT 07:2614 OCT 22:40
Our probability · deportivo maldonado win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo Maldonado win49%47%+2
Draw25%29%−4
Albion FC win25%24%+1
Over 2.5 goals48%42%+6
Both teams to score51%47%+3
Over 1.5 goals73%66%+7
Over 3.5 goals26%23%+3
Deportivo Maldonado or draw75%76%−1
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet36%––
Albion FC clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 7.7 7.7 4.0 1 11.6 12.0 6.2 2.2 2 9.1 9.2 4.8 3 4.7 4.8 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Maldonado down, Albion FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsDEP 1–1 ALB · DEP 1–2 ALB · ALB 2–3 DEP · DEP 0–0 ALB

Form · last six in Copa Uruguay

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO

WLWWWD2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

ALBION FC

LLLLWW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Deportivo Maldonado3+69
2Boston River3+49
3Juventud4+29
4Central Espanol3+57
5Cerrito4+27
6Club Nacional3+27
7Liverpool Montevideo3+46
8Plaza Colonia406
9Penarol3+15
10Albion FC3+15
11Atletico Torque3+14
12CA River Plate3+14
13Cerro Largo304
14Rentistas304
15Danubio3−14
16Racing Montevideo3−43
17Atenas3−12
18Defensor Sporting3−12
19Wanderers4−52
20Oriental3−21
21Fenix3−31
22Cerro3−31
23Colón3−51
24Progreso3−40

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.