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Model 1.1

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Club Nacional v Rentistas

Club Nacional
3–0Full time
Rentistas

Copa Uruguay · FRI 16 OCT · Gran Parque Central

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 02:30
Club Nacional 3–0 Rentistas CLUB NACIONAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Club Nacional win64%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.194
The market’s Brier score0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Club Nacional win at 64%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Club Nacional was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–22–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Club Nacional v Rentistas
  4. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Club Nacional win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  5. 38′We said Club Nacional at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–33–14
  6. 39′Club Nacional find the net on 39′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–3
  7. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Club Nacional 1–0 Rentistas
  8. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Club Nacional win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
  9. 40′We published Club Nacional at 64%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–3
  10. 41′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 86–12–3
  11. 45′Club Nacional ahead on 40′ through A. Rogel. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Club Nacional 1–0 Rentistas
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Club Nacional 1–0 Rentistas
  14. 64′A goal for Club Nacional on 64′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Club Nacional 2–0 Rentistas
  16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Club Nacional win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
  17. 65′We published Club Nacional at 64%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  18. 74′Club Nacional score on 74′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Club Nacional 3–0 Rentistas
  20. 75′We published Club Nacional at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 85′Rentistas find the net on 85′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  23. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Club Nacional 3–1 Rentistas
  24. 86′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  25. 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Rentistas
  26. 91′A red card for Club Nacional on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Club Nacional
  28. FTFULL TIME Club Nacional 3–0 Rentistas
  29. FTClub Nacional 3–0 Rentistas · Club Nacional win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Nacional are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Nacional 64%, draw 22%, Rentistas 14%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Club Nacional v RentistasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Club Nacional win64%
Draw22%
Rentistas win14%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 00:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueGran Parque Central

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Nacional

Rentistas

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club nacional winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
64% The market62%
Us64%
Market62%

We make Club Nacional a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Club Nacional v Rentistas1.90 – 0.74
Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 25 AugW2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1
The market · Club Nacional win62% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 10 OCT 04:0215 OCT 23:41
Our probability · Club Nacional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Club Nacional win64%62%+2
Draw22%23%−1
Rentistas win14%15%−1
Over 2.5 goals49%49%0
Both teams to score45%45%0
Over 1.5 goals74%71%+3
Over 3.5 goals27%29%−2
Club Nacional or draw86%85%+1
Club Nacional clean sheet47%––
Rentistas clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%
0123450 7.4 5.0 1 13.2 10.4 3.7 2 12.8 9.5 3.6 3 8.1 6.0 2.2 4 3.9 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Club Nacional down, Rentistas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2020
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsCLU 3–0 REN · REN 0–4 CLU · CLU 2–2 REN · REN 1–1 CLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 25 Aug

CLUB NACIONAL

DWW0–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

RENTISTAS

DWL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1