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Central Espanol v Danubio

Central Espanol
0–6Full time
Danubio

Copa Uruguay · THU 15 OCT · Parque Palermo

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30
Central Espanol 0–6 Danubio CENTRAL ESPANOL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Central Espanol win40%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.728
The market’s Brier score0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Central Espanol win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Central Espanol was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Central Espanol v Danubio
  4. 31′We said Central Espanol at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–66
  5. 31′Danubio score on 31′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–66
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Central Espanol 0–1 Danubio
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Central Espanol win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
  8. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Danubio win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Central Espanol win 11%)
  9. 33′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
  10. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Central Espanol win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  11. 35′We said Central Espanol at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  12. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Central Espanol 0–2 Danubio
  13. 37′Danubio find the net on 36′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–91
  14. 45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  15. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Central Espanol 0–3 Danubio
  16. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Central Espanol win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Central Espanol 0–3 Danubio
  18. 46′A goal for Danubio on 45′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  19. 46′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  20. 46′HALF-TIME Central Espanol 0–3 Danubio
  21. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Central Espanol 0–4 Danubio
  22. 47′Danubio score on 46′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  23. 75′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  24. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Central Espanol 0–5 Danubio
  25. 76′Danubio find the net on 75′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  26. 87′6 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–6 · 0–0–100
  27. 87′A goal for Danubio on 87′ — 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
  28. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Central Espanol 0–6 Danubio
  29. 90′D. Piriz scores for Danubio on 88′ — 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
  30. 90′Full time, 0–6. We called Central Espanol at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–6 · 0–0–100
  31. FTFULL TIME Central Espanol 0–6 Danubio
  32. FTCentral Espanol 0–6 Danubio · Central Espanol win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Central Espanol are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Espanol 40%, draw 30%, Danubio 31%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Central Espanol v DanubioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Central Espanol win40%
Draw30%
Danubio win31%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueParque Palermo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Espanol

Danubio

4Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 9 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · central espanol winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
40% The market34%
Us40%
Market34%

We make Central Espanol a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Central Espanol v Danubio1.16 – 0.97
Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 26 AugW2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1
The market · Central Espanol win34% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 19:53
Our probability · Central Espanol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Central Espanol win40%34%+6
Draw30%30%0
Danubio win31%35%−4
Over 2.5 goals36%40%−4
Both teams to score42%46%−4
Over 1.5 goals63%64%−1
Over 3.5 goals17%20%−3
Central Espanol or draw69%65%+4
Central Espanol clean sheet38%––
Danubio clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%
0123450 12.1 11.5 5.6 1 13.6 13.3 6.4 2.1 2 7.9 7.6 3.7 3 3.1 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Central Espanol down, Danubio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsCEN 2–2 DAN · DAN 1–1 CEN · CEN 0–0 DAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Uruguay this season · since 26 Aug

CENTRAL ESPANOL

WWD3–0 · 4–2 · 1–1

DANUBIO

WLD3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1