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Boston River v CA River Plate

Boston River

0–0After penalties

CA River Plate

Copa Uruguay · WED 14 OCT · Parque Artigas

After 90 minutesGraded 14 Oct 22:18

Boston River 0–0 CA River Plate BOSTON RIVER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boston River win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.885

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. Boston River won 4–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boston River win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Boston River 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Boston River v CA River Plate
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Boston River win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
44′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–38–21
45′HALF-TIME Boston River 0–0 CA River Plate
46′SECOND HALF Boston River 0–0 CA River Plate
48′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–20
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Boston River win 38%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–45–19
58′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Boston River win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
66′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
72′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Boston River win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
77′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–11
81′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Boston River win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP Boston River win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN Boston River win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
85′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
85′We said Boston River at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Boston River 0–0 CA River Plate
FTBoston River 0–0 CA River Plate after 90 minutes, as graded · Boston River win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Boston River v CA River PlateBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

Boston River win53%

Draw25%

CA River Plate win22%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:30

VenueParque Artigas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Boston River

CA River Plate

21Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Boston River	3	+4	9
12	CA River Plate	3	+1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boston river winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Boston River a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boston River v CA River Plate~~1.65 – 0.99

~~Last six in Copa Uruguay~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~2 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boston River win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
CA River Plate win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Boston River or draw	78%	–	–
Boston River clean sheet	37%	–	–
CA River Plate clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.5 6.7 3.5 1 11.4 12.0 5.8 2 9.7 9.6 4.8 3 5.4 5.3 2.6 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boston River down, CA River Plate across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Boston River play in the Primera División, CA River Plate in the Segunda División.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Boston River are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Boston River, 0.99 for CA River Plate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in Copa Uruguay since 2022. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Copa Uruguay

BOSTON RIVER

LWDWWW0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

CA RIVER PLATE

WDLWLD4–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Maldonado	3	+6	9
2	Boston River	3	+4	9
3	Juventud	4	+2	9
4	Central Espanol	3	+5	7
5	Cerrito	4	+2	7
6	Club Nacional	3	+2	7
7	Liverpool Montevideo	3	+4	6
8	Plaza Colonia	4	0	6
9	Penarol	3	+1	5
10	Albion FC	3	+1	5
11	Atletico Torque	3	+1	4
12	CA River Plate	3	+1	4
13	Cerro Largo	3	0	4
14	Rentistas	3	0	4
15	Danubio	3	−1	4
16	Racing Montevideo	3	−4	3
17	Atenas	3	−1	2
18	Defensor Sporting	3	−1	2
19	Wanderers	4	−5	2
20	Oriental	3	−2	1
21	Fenix	3	−3	1
22	Cerro	3	−3	1
23	Colón	3	−5	1
24	Progreso	3	−4	0