Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Ain prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0 Al Ain SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win~~41%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
1′KICK-OFF Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Ain
13′SUBSTITUTION · 13' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Juan Alvina · Off: Reza Ghandipour
45′Al Ain have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–0 Al Ain
45′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Jahnoah Markelo · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
46′Al Ain have had 10 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–37–30 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
46′We published Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–0 Al Ain
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Ain · On: Adis Jasic · Off: Rafa Rodrigues
46′SECOND HALF Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–0 Al Ain
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
48′Sardar Azmoun scores for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
60′We published Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
60′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 95–5–1
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0 Al Ain
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
62′59′: Kauan Santos Silva on the scoresheet for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al Ain · On: Matías Palacios · Off: Houssine Rahimi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Al Ain · On: Giorgos Giakoumakis · Off: Teun Gijselhart
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Yahya Benkhaleq · Al Ain
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Renan Victor da Silva · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Mateus Henrique Alves Silva · Off: Juan Alvina
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Ain · On: Baba Bello Ilou · Off: Djordje Skoko
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Jorge Fernandes · Off: Renan Victor da Silva
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Adis Jasic · Al Ain
75′17 shots for Al Ain, 9 the other way, and they still trail 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ramy Rabia · Al Ain
84′We published Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Ain · On: Erik Jorgens de Menezes · Off: Valentino Lazaro
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Mateus Dias Lima · Off: Sardar Azmoun
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Rikelme Hernandes Amorim Rocha · Off: Jahnoah Markelo
88′21 shots for Al Ain, 9 the other way, and they still trail 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Abdoul Karim Traoré · Al Ain
93′A red card for Al Ain on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Abdoul Karim Traoré · Al Ain
FTFULL TIME Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0 Al Ain
FTShabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0 Al Ain · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41%, draw 24%, Al Ain 35%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al AinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win41%

Draw24%

Al Ain win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAl-Rashid Stadium

Line-ups

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

5-4-1

Al Ain

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Al Ain

4Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al Ain	5	+7	13
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	5	+5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

5-4-1

22 Hamad Abdullah

24 J. Markelo

3 Igor Gomes

4 W. Faes

13 Renan

31 Kauan Santos

80 Breno Cascardo

6 S. Ezatolahi

88 N. Maksimović

9 R. Ghandipour

20 S. Azmoun

Coach · André Jardine

Substitutes

26 · Eid Khamis Al-Nuaimi

8 · Mohammad Juma

75 · Mateus Henrique

55 · Juan Alvina

19 · Mateusão

33 · Matheus Donelli

14 · D. García

16 · Rikelme

5 · E. Irala

30 · Oumar Keita

44 · Jorge Fernandes

70 · Thiago Scarpino

Al Ain

5-3-2

17 Khalid Eisa

19 V. Lazaro

4 Y. Ben Khaleq

25 Rami Rabia

6 Đ. Skoko

2 Rafael Rodrigues

10 A. Romero

70 Abdoul Karim Traoré

5 T. Gijselhart

21 S. Rahimi

13 H. Rahimi

Coach · Vladimir Ivic

Substitutes

1 · Mohammed Bu Sanda

3 · Marcos Maia

20 · M. Palacios

56 · A. Niang

35 · H. Muhammed

38 · I. Ndiaye

15 · Erik

97 · A. Jašić

18 · B. Ilou

7 · G. Giakoumakis

30 · Hazem Mohammad

80 · Joshua Udoh

Our number · shabab al ahli dubai winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market28%

Us41%

~~Market~~28%

We make Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Ain~~1.61 – 1.46

~~Form · Pro League this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~4 v 2

~~The market · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win~~28% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win	41%	28%	+13
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Al Ain win	35%	47%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw	65%	53%	+12
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai clean sheet	23%	–	–
Al Ain clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.6 7.0 5.0 2.4 1 7.7 10.8 7.9 3.9 2 6.0 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 3.2 4.7 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shabab Al Ahli Dubai down, Al Ain across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 947 Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al Ain away: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 1.46 for Al Ain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 3–2 SHA · SHA 0–1 ALA · SHA 0–0 ALA · ALA 0–1 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro League this season · since 15 Aug

SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI

WWWLD5–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

AL AIN

WWWWD4–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wasl FC	6	+11	13
2	Al Ain	5	+7	13
3	Al-Jazira	5	+9	13
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	5	+5	10
5	Ajman	5	−1	9
6	Al Wahda FC	5	+1	9
7	Sharjah FC	5	+3	9
8	Dubai United	6	−5	7
9	Al-Dhafra	6	−2	6
10	Al Nasr	5	−1	5
11	Al-Ittihad Kalba	5	−7	4
12	Khorfakkan	5	−7	4
13	Hatta SC	5	−6	3
14	Baniyas SC	6	−7	1