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Khorfakkan v Al Wahda FC

Khorfakkan

2–3Full time

Al Wahda FC

Pro League · SUN 18 OCT · Saqr Bin Mohammad Quassimi Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Khorfakkan 2–3 Al Wahda FC AL WAHDA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Wahda FC win~~54%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.316

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.257

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Wahda FC win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Wahda FC was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 24–23–54
1′KICK-OFF Khorfakkan v Al Wahda FC
7′PENALTY CANCELLED · 5' Al Wahda FC
14′We said Al Wahda FC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 49–24–27
14′Khorfakkan ahead on 13′ through Ramiro Vaca. 1–0. 1–0 · 49–24–27
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Khorfakkan 1–0 Al Wahda FC
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 27% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Khorfakkan win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Al Wahda FC win 27%)
22′We said Al Wahda FC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 50–25–24
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
25′Mansour Saleh Burghash scores for Al Wahda FC on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–28–49
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Khorfakkan 1–1 Al Wahda FC
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 49% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Al Wahda FC win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Khorfakkan win 23%)
33′32′: Tarik Tissoudali on the scoresheet for Khorfakkan, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 53–26–21
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Khorfakkan 2–1 Al Wahda FC · Tarik Tissoudali
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 21% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Khorfakkan win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Al Wahda FC win 21%)
36′We said Al Wahda FC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 54–26–19
39′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 22–33–45
39′Al Wahda FC level it on 39′ through Christian Benteke. 2–2. 2–2 · 22–33–45
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Khorfakkan 2–2 Al Wahda FC
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Al Wahda FC win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Khorfakkan win 22%)
45′HALF-TIME Khorfakkan 2–3 Al Wahda FC
46′We said Al Wahda FC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 2–2 · 22–36–42
46′SECOND HALF Khorfakkan 2–3 Al Wahda FC
48′We published Al Wahda FC at 54%. Our model now makes it 79%. 2–3 · 5–16–79
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Khorfakkan 2–3 Al Wahda FC
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
49′Christian Benteke scores for Al Wahda FC on 45′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 5–16–79
49′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 5–16–79
54′We published Al Wahda FC at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–3 · 4–16–80
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Lucas Pimenta · Al Wahda FC
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Khorfakkan · On: Abdalla Ali Hassan Mohamed Rashid Al Naqbi · Off: Ahmadou Camara
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Khorfakkan · On: Pedro Pavlov · Off: Rilwanu Haliru Sarki
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
71′We published Al Wahda FC at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–3 · 2–13–85
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Wahda FC · On: Amanallah Mjahed · Off: Moussa Diarra
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Khorfakkan · On: Yousef Al Ameri · Off: Aylton Boa Morte
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Khorfakkan · On: Akram Nakach · Off: Rafael Pereira
80′We published Al Wahda FC at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jadson · Al Wahda FC
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al Wahda FC · On: Mobin Dehghan · Off: Adam Gnezda Čerin
85′We said Al Wahda FC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 3–3 · 6–84–10
85′17 shots for Al Wahda FC, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 3–3 · 6–84–10
85′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 6–84–10
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Wahda FC · On: Caio Canedo · Off: Facundo Kruspzky
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Wahda FC · On: Omar Kharbin · Off: Brahima Diarra
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Khorfakkan 3–3 Al Wahda FC
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 10% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Al Wahda FC win 10%)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Wahda FC · On: Asher Agbinone · Off: Christian Benteke
86′We said Al Wahda FC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–3 · 6–85–9
87′86′: Tarik Tissoudali on the scoresheet for Khorfakkan, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 5–86–8
87′We published Al Wahda FC at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Khorfakkan
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Al Wahda FC win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Al Wahda FC win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Khorfakkan 2–3 Al Wahda FC
FTKhorfakkan 2–3 Al Wahda FC · Al Wahda FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Wahda FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khorfakkan 24%, draw 22%, Al Wahda FC 54%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Khorfakkan v Al Wahda FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Khorfakkan win24%

Draw22%

Al Wahda FC win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:05

RoundMatchday 6

VenueSaqr Bin Mohammad Quassimi Stadium

Line-ups

Khorfakkan

4-1-4-1

Al Wahda FC

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khorfakkan

Al Wahda FC

10Days since last match4

Last match: 8 Oct · League Cup (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al Wahda FC	5	+1	9
12	Khorfakkan	5	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Khorfakkan

4-1-4-1

1 Ahmed Al Hosani

11 A. Jashak

3 Kayque Soares

19 L. Haquín

4 Rafael Pereira

5 A. Camara

77 R. Sarki

10 Aylton Boa Morte

80 R. Vaca

79 J. N'Guessan

9 T. Tissoudali

Coach · Abdelmajeed Alzarooni

Substitutes

24 · Ahmed Mahmoud

2 · Yousef Al Ameri

25 · K. Al Hanae

6 · A. Nakach

8 · Abdalla Al Naqbi

50 · Rashid Ali

17 · Sultan Alzaabi

12 · I. Lagrimi

16 · P. Pavlov

34 · S. Seymor

95 · Rashid Abdalla

Al Wahda FC

4-1-4-1

23 F. Lirussi

2 Mansour Saleh Barghash Jaralla Al Menhali

6 M. Ghorbani

3 Lucas Pimenta

44 M. Diarra

25 Jadsom Silva

11 F. Kruspzky

12 Abdulla Hamad

8 A. Čerin

94 B. Diarra

20 C. Benteke

Coach · Péricles Chamusca

Substitutes

80 · Abdulqader Abdullah

19 · A. Agbinone

40 · Abdullrahman Al Ameri

7 · Caio Canedo

15 · M. Dehghan

35 · A. Majhed

70 · Omar Khribin

97 · Sam Mark Koffie

32 · Gonçalo Moura Oliveira

92 · Zayid Sultan Salim Rashid Al Falahi

66 · G. Suárez

13 · Haza Shehab

Our number · al wahda fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market59%

Us54%

~~Market~~59%

We make Al Wahda FC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khorfakkan v Al Wahda FC~~1.15 – 1.86

~~Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~12 v 6

~~The market · Al Wahda FC win~~59% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Wahda FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khorfakkan win	24%	19%	+5
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Al Wahda FC win	54%	59%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Khorfakkan or draw	46%	41%	+5
Khorfakkan clean sheet	16%	–	–
Al Wahda FC clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 9.3 8.5 5.3 2.5 1 5.8 10.4 9.7 6.0 2.8 2 3.3 6.0 5.6 3.4 3 2.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khorfakkan down, Al Wahda FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 949 Pro League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khorfakkan at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Wahda FC away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Khorfakkan, 1.86 for Al Wahda FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KHO 1–1 ALW · ALW 1–0 KHO · KHO 1–2 ALW · ALW 2–2 KHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug

KHORFAKKAN

LLWLD1–5 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 0–0

AL WAHDA FC

LLWWW2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	6	+7	13
2	Al-Jazira	5	+9	13
3	Al-Wasl FC	6	+11	13
4	Al Ain	6	+5	13
5	Ajman	5	−1	9
6	Al Wahda FC	5	+1	9
7	Sharjah FC	5	+3	9
8	Al Nasr	6	+1	8
9	Dubai United	6	−5	7
10	Al-Dhafra	6	−2	6
11	Al-Ittihad Kalba	5	−7	4
12	Khorfakkan	5	−7	4
13	Hatta SC	6	−8	3
14	Baniyas SC	6	−7	1