Baniyas SC v Al-Wasl FC prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Baniyas SC 0–2 Al-Wasl FC AL-WASL FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Wasl FC win~~60%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.241

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.217

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Wasl FC win at 60%.
2′Much as we predicted: Al-Wasl FC was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 19–21–59
2′KICK-OFF Baniyas SC v Al-Wasl FC
11′We published Al-Wasl FC at 60%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 7–13–81
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Baniyas SC 0–1 Al-Wasl FC
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Al-Wasl FC win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
12′11′: Mehdi Taremi on the scoresheet for Al-Wasl FC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–13–81
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–80
35′We published Al-Wasl FC at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Baniyas SC 0–2 Al-Wasl FC
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Al-Wasl FC win: 60% at kick-off, 95% now
35′GOAL DISALLOWED · 35' Al-Wasl FC
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Al-Wasl FC win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Baniyas SC 0–2 Al-Wasl FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Baniyas SC · On: Rocky Marciano · Off: Youssouf Niakate
46′Al-Wasl FC ahead on 45′ through Cameron Puertas. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Baniyas SC 0–2 Al-Wasl FC · Cameron Puertas
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Al-Wasl FC win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
46′SECOND HALF Baniyas SC 0–2 Al-Wasl FC
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al-Wasl FC · On: Siaka Sidibe · Off: Leandro Spadacio leite
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al-Wasl FC · On: Fabio De Lima · Off: Nicolás Giménez
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Soufiane Bouftini · Al-Wasl FC
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Rui Carlos Pinho da Vitória · Al-Wasl FC
70′13 shots for Baniyas SC, 8 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Baniyas SC · On: Khamis Al-Mansoori · Off: Jacob Gildas Awoute
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al-Wasl FC · On: Renato Barbosa dos Santos Júnior · Off: Mehdi Taremi
81′We published Al-Wasl FC at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Al-Wasl FC win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Baniyas SC · On: Mohamed Awad · Off: Saviour Godwin
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Baniyas SC · On: Solomon Sosu · Off: Mackenzie Hunt
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Baniyas SC · On: Ahmed Fawzi · Off: Suhail Ahmed Al Noobi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al-Wasl FC · On: Renato Tapia · Off: Abdulrasaq Ridwan Popoola
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al-Wasl FC · On: Ali Saleh · Off: Sérgio Andrade
94′17 shots for Baniyas SC, 10 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Baniyas SC 0–2 Al-Wasl FC
FTBaniyas SC 0–2 Al-Wasl FC · Al-Wasl FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Wasl FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baniyas SC 19%, draw 21%, Al-Wasl FC 60%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Baniyas SC v Al-Wasl FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Baniyas SC win19%

Draw21%

Al-Wasl FC win60%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 6

VenueBaniyas Stadium

Line-ups

Baniyas SC

4-2-3-1

Al-Wasl FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baniyas SC

Al-Wasl FC

7Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · League Cup (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Wasl FC	5	+9	10
14	Baniyas SC	5	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Baniyas SC

4-2-3-1

55 Fahad Al Dhanhani

18 S. Al Noobi

25 N. Đeković

2 Mahamadou Camara

21 Mackenzie Hunt

28 A. Diallo

6 J. Awoute

11 Alhassan Koroma

70 A. Gʻaniyev

77 S. Godwin

12 Y. Niakaté

Coach · Hassan Al-Abdooli

Substitutes

4 · S. Sosu

8 · Mater Salem Alhosani

9 · Ahmed Fawzi

5 · Hasan Al Muharrami

20 · Saif Al Menhali

26 · Khamis Al Mansoori

16 · Khalid Hashemi

72 · Mohamed Awad Alla

27 · B. İnce

1 · Mohammed Khalaf

19 · R. Marciano

17 · Luiz Turatto

Al-Wasl FC

4-2-3-1

23 D. Horkaš

79 Pedro Malheiro

4 S. Bouftini

15 S. Ivković

16 Hugo

21 Cameron Puertas

5 A. Popoola

77 Leandro Spadacio

31 N. Giménez

19 Serginho

9 M. Taremi

Coach · Rui Vitória

Substitutes

96 · Renato Júnior

8 · Yahia Nader

12 · Abdulrahman Saleh

34 · Adryelson

32 · Mohamed Ali

14 · Rodrigo

30 · B. Palacios

20 · Saldanha

6 · S. Sidibe

13 · R. Tapia

10 · Fábio Lima

7 · Ali Saleh

Our number · al-wasl fc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

60% The market62%

Us60%

~~Market~~62%

We make Al-Wasl FC a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baniyas SC v Al-Wasl FC~~1.07 – 2.04

~~Form · Pro League this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 10~~14 v 4

~~The market · Al-Wasl FC win~~62% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Wasl FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baniyas SC win	19%	18%	+1
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Al-Wasl FC win	60%	62%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	67%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	62%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	85%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Baniyas SC or draw	40%	38%	+2
Baniyas SC clean sheet	13%	–	–
Al-Wasl FC clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.8%

0123450 4.4 9.2 9.3 6.3 3.3 1 4.9 9.6 9.8 6.7 3.4 2 2.6 5.2 5.2 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baniyas SC down, Al-Wasl FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 945 Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baniyas SC at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Wasl FC away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Baniyas SC, 2.04 for Al-Wasl FC. Most likely score 1–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 16:19. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAN 2–0 ALW · ALW 2–0 BAN · ALW 3–1 BAN · BAN 0–0 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro League this season · since 15 Aug

BANIYAS SC

LLLLD2–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

AL-WASL FC

WWLWD5–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Jazira	5	+9	13
2	Al Ain	5	+7	13
3	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	5	+5	10
4	Al-Wasl FC	5	+9	10
5	Ajman	5	−1	9
6	Al Wahda FC	5	+1	9
7	Sharjah FC	5	+3	9
8	Dubai United	5	−1	7
9	Al Nasr	5	−1	5
10	Al-Ittihad Kalba	5	−7	4
11	Khorfakkan	5	−7	4
12	Al-Dhafra	5	−6	3
13	Hatta SC	5	−6	3
14	Baniyas SC	5	−5	1