Al Nasr v Hatta SC prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Al Nasr 2–0 Hatta SC AL NASR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Nasr win~~63%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.206

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Nasr win at 63%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Al Nasr 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–18
2′KICK-OFF Al Nasr v Hatta SC
21′We said Al Nasr at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–6
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Al Nasr 1–0 Hatta SC
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Al Nasr win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
22′Al Nasr find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
40′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Al Nasr · On: Felipe de Souza Motta Marins · Off: Gláuber Siqueira dos Santos Lima
45′SECOND HALF Al Nasr 1–0 Hatta SC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Al Nasr win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
48′Al Nasr ahead on 22′ through Ramón Mierez. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
48′We said Al Nasr at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
48′HALF-TIME Al Nasr 1–0 Hatta SC
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Issam Faiz · Al Nasr
59′We said Al Nasr at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
59′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Al Nasr 2–0 Hatta SC
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Al Nasr win: 63% at kick-off, 97% now
61′Abdoulaye Toure scores for Al Nasr on 59′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al Nasr · On: Chris Bedia · Off: Ajdin Hrustic
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al Nasr · On: João Moreira · Off: Zayed Sultan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hatta SC · On: Seifeddine Jaziri · Off: Bernard Babacar Faye
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hatta SC · On: Pedro Henrique Fonseca de Araújo Martins · Off: Drissa Coulibaly
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Nasr · On: Moussa Ndiaye · Off: Issam Faiz
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Nasr · On: Wesley Delgado · Off: Abdoulaye Toure
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hatta SC · On: Hamdan Humaid Hasan Ahmed Albeshr · Off: Mohamed Firas Ben Larbi
80′We said Al Nasr at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hatta SC · On: Khauan Schlickmann Carmon · Off: Dominique Simon
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hatta SC · On: Atiq Walid · Off: Saeed Suleiman Salem
85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Hatta SC
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Hamdan Humaid Hasan Ahmed Albeshr · Hatta SC
88′Hatta SC are down to ten from 84′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′2–0 at the end. Our 63% on Al Nasr comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Al Nasr 2–0 Hatta SC
FTAl Nasr 2–0 Hatta SC · Al Nasr win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Nasr are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Nasr 63%, draw 19%, Hatta SC 18%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al Nasr v Hatta SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Nasr win63%

Draw19%

Hatta SC win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:05

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAl Maktoum Stadium

Line-ups

Al Nasr

4-4-2

Hatta SC

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Nasr

Hatta SC

4Days since last match9

Last match: 13 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

Last match: 8 Oct · League Cup (United Arab Emirates)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Al Nasr	5	−1	5
13	Hatta SC	5	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Nasr

4-4-2

12 Ahmed Shambih

24 Zayed Sultan

15 Abdoulaye Sanogo

4 Gláuber

55 D. Petrović

7 K. Agudelo

19 L. Milivojević

57 I. Faiz

28 A. Toure

70 A. Hrustić

13 R. Mierez

Coach · Milos Milojevic

Substitutes

17 · Wesley Delgado

5 · Mohammad Abdulbasit

2 · Salem Sultan

21 · Abdulla Idrees

37 · S. Salem

30 · João Moreira

3 · Gustavo Alemão

38 · Moussa Ndiaye

6 · Hussain Mahdi

14 · Felipe Motta

9 · C. Bedia

Hatta SC

4-3-3

22 Marzooq Rashed

3 Saeed Sulaiman

33 Bruno Leonardo

52 Bastian Kaua

74 Adham Khalid Ali Abdelhameed

16 J. Pedroza

10 A. Rchoq

80 D. Simon

11 F. Ben Arbi

99 B. Faye

60 D. Coulibaly

Coach · A. Ilić

Substitutes

44 · Ibrahim Essa Al Balooshi

28 · Hamdan Humaid Hasan Ahmed Albeshr

5 · Khalid Abdulla

9 · Pedrinho

30 · S. Jaziri

50 · Saeed Al Mesmari

2 · Omar Saeed

36 · Schlickmann

49 · Jocelyn Doumbia

4 · Atiq Walid

Our number · al nasr winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market65%

Us63%

~~Market~~65%

We make Al Nasr a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Nasr v Hatta SC~~2.15 – 1.02

~~Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 3~~10 v 13

~~The market · Al Nasr win~~65% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Nasr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Nasr win	63%	65%	−2
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Hatta SC win	18%	16%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Al Nasr or draw	82%	84%	−2
Al Nasr clean sheet	37%	–	–
Hatta SC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 4.2 4.5 2.3 1 9.2 9.0 4.7 2 9.7 9.5 4.9 3 7.0 6.8 3.4 4 3.9 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Nasr down, Hatta SC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 947 Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Nasr at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hatta SC away: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Al Nasr, 1.02 for Hatta SC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALN 4–1 HAT · ALN 1–0 HAT · HAT 0–3 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug

AL NASR

DWLLD2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

HATTA SC

LLLWL0–2 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wasl FC	6	+11	13
2	Al Ain	5	+7	13
3	Al-Jazira	5	+9	13
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	5	+5	10
5	Ajman	5	−1	9
6	Al Wahda FC	5	+1	9
7	Sharjah FC	5	+3	9
8	Dubai United	6	−5	7
9	Al-Dhafra	6	−2	6
10	Al Nasr	5	−1	5
11	Al-Ittihad Kalba	5	−7	4
12	Khorfakkan	5	−7	4
13	Hatta SC	5	−6	3
14	Baniyas SC	6	−7	1